The Poliblogs Tuesday 23rd October 2007

A peek at Gordon's vision

One of the surprises of Gordon Brown’s premiership so far to date, is how little substantive policy there has been. Pretty much everything Brown has done has been about political positioning—putting the Tories in an awakward spot, distancing himself from Blair and the like. As Rachel Sylvester argues in the Telegraph this morning a positive Brownite agenda has yet to emerge.

Coffee House

The EU reform treaty and the left

Of course the left in Britain should favour a referendum on the European Union reform treaty, an issue that will dominate official politics for months to come. But it needs to make absolutely certain it doesn’t line up with UKIP and the Daily Mail in the process. A referendum is the only politically honest course for Labour, after having promised such a vote on proposals for an EU constitution. The only reason for the prime minister to pretend that the reform treaty is not essentially a repackaging of the document rejected by the Dutch and the French is the certain knowledge that the chances of securing assent are slimmer than a bulimic supermodel on amphetamine sulphate.

Dave’s Part

Referendums in Scotland

The implication ( which could be drawn from Rees-Mogg's Times article) that the reason the Leader signed up to the European constitutional Reform Treaty so avidly was that it retrieved powers devolved unwisely to the Scottish government and conceded them to the European Union subject to negotiation with the member-state - ie., the Westminster Labour regime - is attractive but for subsidiarity's fundamental role in the European Union's foundation.

Angels in Marble

Dear Foreign Secretary,

I write to explain why I shall be among thousands of angry and despairing British citizens attending the Referendum Rally in London on Saturday 27th October and why I and others now urge our fellow citizens to overturn hundreds of years of highly developed Parliamentary tradition and demand a national plebiscite on the Reform Treaty.

Prodicus

The Swiss model

Switzerland's ever-closer relationship with the EU is not a good poster child for those who question the benefits of Britain's membership.

Alex Singleton

How many people actually care about Europe?

We await the next political opinion poll - hopefully tomorrow’s Guardian will have one from ICM, though until Ming Campbell is replaced by a new Liberal Democrat leader we are once again in a sort of polling interregnum with a known unknown bearing down on us. There were a couple of polls over the weekend. Firstly a Populus poll for the BBC’s Daily Politics showed us what we already knew, that the overwhelming majority of people say they would like a referendum on the new European Treaty, in this case 73%.

Polling Report

The focus shifts?

Although much of the media is focusing on Brown's refusal to offer a referendum on the EU treaty, there are straws in the wind which suggest that the Tories are not going to get an easy ride on the issue – unless they get their act together. One of those "straws" was the leader in The Times today which, under the heading, "Cold Calculations", argued that, "The Tories have a compelling case to make on the EU treaty".

EU Referendum

Immigration Number Shocks

Following Friday's soiree, I've had a riffle through the large collection of papers being submitted to the House of Lords enquiry into The Economic Impact of Immigration (see their website here). Labour's own cross-departmental submission got a lot of coverage last week, with Home Office minister Liam Byrne still insisting that immigration has made us all better off (eg see the Grauniad's account here). The truth, as regular BOM readers will know, is that while immigration is estimated to have boosted overall GDP- by £6bn pa according to Byrne- it has done virtually nothing for per capita GDP: higher output is simply offset by having many more mouths to feed. But the other submissions to the enquiry contain some new (to Tyler) and truly shocking stuff.

Burning Our Money

The MP who thinks David Kelly was murdered

Norman Baker, the Lib Dem MP, has gained a reputation in Westminster as one of the best ferreters out of information. But his new theories about how David Kelly died appear a little far-fetched. (Anything which involves letters from people who sign themselves ‘Nemesis’ seems a little suspect to me). David Aaronvitch in The Times does a great job of debunking Baker’s thesis and poses a challenge to Baker:

Coffee House

David Cameron should not renew George Osborne's spending pledge

As ConservativeHome has already noted, we won a £1bn tax cut but had already surrendered a £37bn real increase in spending. One of the most important internal debates in the run-up to the next General Election will be whether George Osborne should repeat the pledge to match Labour's spending for the subsequent three years. At the moment, he has said that we will match the commitment until 2010/11. We need to ensure that the pledge does not become 2011/12 and then 2012/13. Tory grassroots members oppose the pledge by 64% to 24%. There is also much unhappiness amongst Tory MPs about the spending me-tooism. I think they do so for three good reasons:

Conservative Home

Carbon news

Two bits of carbon news caught my eye this morning. First was this from the BBC - an estimated 23% of China's carbon emissions is produced making export goods for Western markets. So although there is some weight to the argument that China is building two coal-fired power stations a week, and what can we possibly do about that - if exports account for such a large percentage, then we do have significant leverage in reducing China's emissions.

Earthquake Cove

The wrong kind of evidence

Carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have been rising more rapidly than most forecasts predicted. The Times reports: An international team of researchers has found that, since 2000, the rate at which CO2 has been pumped into the atmosphere is 35 per cent greater than most climate change models have allowed for. Since the year 2000. OK. What has the temperature been doing? Well, since the year 2000, global temperatures have levelled off. This year is a case in point. As recently as April, the Met Office forecast:

Freeborn John

And the winner is…the Liberal Democrats!

It is of course something of a cliché, but the leadership contest does allow us some airtime and public interest to talk about what the Liberal Democrats believe in some places where the broader public may hear.

Jeremy Hargreaves

Personalities and Politics

Whilst I appreciate it is an easy trap to fall into, one of the dangers of being involved in politics is sometimes taking an exceptional dislike to an individual because of their politics.

Now I am not being twee here, for example I think it's right that, if someone shared the politics of Adolf Hitler it might not be a good idea to invite them round for dinner with a few of your friends. But where centre politics are concerned, whether right or left, I think it is important to divorce personalities from politics. If nothing else it helps foster respect from the electorate.

So I am a little bit bothered when some Conservatives and Liberal Democrats make a few personal jibes about Gordon Brown.

Mars Hill

The inherent danger in being the Lib Dem leadership "front runner"

There used to be a time when it was good to be seen as the favourite, the early pace setter or the front runner, but recent political battles tell us otherwise, and I have got the impression the Nick Clegg camp are starting to talk down the "front runner" status of their man whilst the press try to talk up Nick Clegg's chances, possibly because they fear him the most and by promoting his "favourite" status, they hope to weaken his electability or possibly it is also just out of sheer laziness. After all, the press did for Ming, and now they want to say they chose his successor.

Norfolk Blogger

The Top 10 Political Misjudgements

Ever since Gordon Brown decided not to hold an autumn General Election this year, there has been speculation that it could prove as fatal a misjudgement for him as it did for Jim Callaghan in 1978. I myself speculated in a recent column: "The danger for Mr Brown is that his government, like Major’s, is now entering a period of what the Germans would call Gotterdammerung – the twilight of the gods. Far from renewing Labour in office, it could be that his destiny is to spend the next two years fighting back the inexorable Tory tide, while Mr Cameron prepares for his inevitable victory."

Paul Linford

How does this square with Brown’s “no election” statement?

The main lead in the Guardian this morning confirms how serious Labour was about going to the country in late October or early November and could provide further ammunition for the Tories as they seek to attack Brown. For according to the paper “nearly a million pounds” was spent in the run-up compared with just £200,000 by the Tories.

Political Betting

Fixed Term Parliaments

I'm not exactly fiercely opposed to fixed term parliaments. I doubt they would bring the country crashing to a halt. It just seems that those proposing them haven't really identified a problem. While Conor Burns clearly really hates Brown all of the other examples he brings up of governments that went to the polls early he thinks are legitimate.#

Sinclair’s Musings

Free Prescriptions for all …

… Scots. The Scottish government is abolishing prescription charges in Scotland for all Scots. At the moment, 96% of all prescriptions are dispensed free of charge. Abolishing prescription charges north of the border is going to cost the English taxpayer another £70m.

Wonko’s World

The middle class closed shop

Today's Guardian makes depressing reading for anyone who supports a progressive agenda in British politics. The Guardian/ICM poll suggests that Britain remains a nation that is still dominated by class division. Of those questioned: 89% said they think people are still judged by their class - with almost half saying that it still counts for "a lot". 8% thought that class does not matter at all in shaping the way people are seen. 55% of people said that class, not ability, greatly affects the way they are seen.

Labourhome

I'm back!

The full round up will be published this afternoon.

In the meantime, you can read my Politics Decoded column over at The Wardman Wire...

Break in Transmission

I am taking a much deserved (in my opinion!) break tomorrow and so there will be no Poliblogs until Tuesday next week.

The Poliblogs 18th October 2007

Calm Before the Storm

This hugely controversial treaty is the replacement for the European Constitution rejected by French and Dutch voters two years ago. Supporters say it’s a set of modest rule changes to allow the European Union to work better, now the organisation is so much bigger. Critics say it’s a further extension of power to Brussels and an erosion of the nation state. Among the main proposals:

Mark Mardell

Promises, Promises

"If we were deciding to join the euro, we would have a referendum. " Declaration by the Leader of the Labour party and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom , Wednesday 17 October 2007.

Angels in Marble

EU deal is done - will the Tories undo it?

With as little fuss as he can get away with, Gordon Brown will sign up to the EU constitution Reform Treaty tomorrow evening in Lisbon. The deal was actually done on Monday when other countries confirmed that they will not seek to unpick Britain's "red lines". Unless Poland decides to fight WW2 again, or the Italians cut up rough, the only crunch at this summit will be the sound of our elected tribunes chewing on their summit dinner. Friday will be taken up with discussion of climate change, before a lunchtime dash for the airport.

Ben Brogan

Get it over and done with!

On the eve of the IGC summit, the "colleagues" may be on the brink of pulling off the most audacious bloodless coup in the history of Europe, if not mankind. But, they are leaving the peoples of the member states behind. According to an FT/Harris poll, an overwhelming majority of people in Britain and four other big European Union countries want a referendum on the treaty. Some 70 percent of those questioned in the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain want one, 20 percent do not, and 10 percent are unsure.

EU Referendum

Review of EU Directive on Jams, Jellies and Marmalades

Stop Brussels and save our home-made jam. Eat your heart out, Nigella. Look to your laurels, Jamie. I am about to reveal exclusively to readers of this newspaper the secret of making impeccable damson jam. After two seasons of experiment, in which I have burned saucepans, smashed Moulinexes and splattered so much jam over the kitchen that it resembled a scene from Goodfellas, I have cracked the great damson stone problem. I now present my findings to the Royal Society of Telegraph Jam-Makers with the sense of exhaustion and pride that Rutherford must have felt after splitting the atom.

Boris Johnson

The Liberal Democrat leadership contest and the left

The Liberal Democrats have long been a few inches to the left of New Labour. Or to perhaps express the matter more exactly, New Labour has long been a few inches to the right of the Lib Dems. These differences are largely nuances, of course. There are no disagreements of substance sufficient to rule out a coalition government in the event of a hung parliament.

Dave’s Part

The tip of the iceberg

Britain's new claim for sovereignty in Antarctica is all about energy, but we should now expect a sharp backlash and criticism from around the world.

Michael Bravo

Is The Sun cooling towards bullying Brown?

Earlier this week Irwin Stelzer - 'Rupert Murdoch's representative on earth' - gave an interview to The Guardian in which he signalled a growing warmth of The Sun (and News of the World) to David Cameron.

Conservative Home

A straight choice between Clegg & Huhne?

That’s what it’s looking like with the news that Steve Webb will not be entering the contest to become the next leader of the Liberal Democrats, but instead backing Nick Clegg. (Although John Hemming has also declared, currently it looks unlikely he will reach the required seven nominations by MPs.)

Lib Dem Voice

Place your bets, place your bets… Lib Dem leadership scandals.

At the last leadership election, anecdotal evidence suggests that most people returned their ballots as soon as they receive them - so the contest may be decided much sooner than the official timetable indicates. Of course, before the ballots were sent out in our last leadership election, things got pretty spectacular. So here are the odds for just some of the interesting things that may happen between now and the ballots going out:

A posh sounding Northumbrian

I'm a fan of the BBC but ...

I have made no secret of the fact that I am a massive fan of the BBC. Many people who are perhaps happy with ITV Play or Sky One argue that the market can produce the same quality of TV that the BBC offers, although that is patently not the case from the several hundred channels on Sky Digital, and that the license fee should be abolished. Again, I disagree. However, I do think the BBC is bloated, duplicates its effort too much and needs to become much more streamlined. So it is in this context that I think the announcement of 1800 job losses is required, despite the inevitable hardship this will cause.

Norfolk Blogger

Where the next election will be decided

Nice map but so what? Take a good look at the map. Notice anything? That these marginal seats will decide the next election is not news. But look at the pattern the 201 marginal seats highlighted make. They don’t concentrate in Wales, Scotland, London, the major cities or the truly rural areas. They aren’t really regional. They are heavily concentrated in Medium English Towns and Their Hinterlands (METTHs from now on).

Political Betting

PMQs 17th October 2007

PMQs - The Verdict

As Gordon Brown entered the chamber to face David Cameron he would be forgiven for thinking that whatever was about to happen it couldn't be worse than last week - and so it proved to be. Since then the focus has shifted from Brown's leadership to that of the Liberal Democrats, and the absence of Sir Menzies Campbell on the frontbench told its own story of how treacherous life at the top can be. But David Cameron was in his place, and as the longest serving major party leader a comparative veteran at these events.

ePolitix

Normal service resumed

Relief all around on Labour faces just now after 30 minutes of PMQs. Gordon Brown was solid, combative, prime ministerial. He look composed. He also had his MPs on side this time. Geoff Hoon must have put the word round for a better performance from the backbenches. From the off they hit the Tories with plenty of noise, nearly drowning out Graham Brady (nope, wasn't his moment).

Ben Brogan

The Brown Cameron clash at PMQs

Brown better today, but that's not saying much. The Labour benches were obviously under instructions to cheer, but they still look on without expression with only a handful (Jack Straw especially) nodding to Brown’s points. But he still stammers and allows himself to be shouted down by the Tories. His new line (mentioned five times) is that there is a £6bn black hole in Tory plans, latching on to the dodgy maths in the Tory non dom calculation. Quite right too, a good target.

Coffee House

PMQs: Same Old, Same Old...

Having had Gordon on the back foot last week, Dave decided to go try an attack on the NHS, always a dodgy decision for the Tories. Dave asked about targets and quoted various people who considered them to be limiting their work, Gordon defended targets and quoted other people. This went on for four questions as their voices increased in volume and nothing new was learned. Dave asked why Gordon wouldn’t listen to the people who worked in the NHS, Gordon responded that it was precisely because he listened to the British people that….and then I lost consciousness.

Wit & Wisdom

VERDICT

It couldn't have got any worse for Brown from last week and so it proved. Cameron was just not quite hitting the mark and Brown was batting things away nicely. Too often Cameron sounded like he was stuck on last week - calling for an election isn't going to work every week and sounded very out of place. Cameron's assault on the NHS was easily dealt with by Brown and made his questions on Europe sound like he was changing the subject because he was getting nowhere with Health - which inevitably took the sting out of any calls for a referendum. All the same, Brown didn't land too many punches either - though he will be the more relieved of the two of them! I score it a draw.

Brown 0.5

Cameron 0.5

The Poliblogs 17th October 2007

Yet another resignation… but where now?

Understandably, there is now lots of speculation as to who should take over. I know from my own point of view of working for Nick Clegg that his phone has now gone mad and he has been inundated with people wanting know what he intends to do in the leadership campaign that the party is about to have. Personally, I really hope that Nick Clegg runs for so many reasons:

Anders Hanson

It's all so damn predictable

There is a mood in the House of Commons – you can smell it, feel it, even taste it. Party politics, always tribal, has in this new session acquired an unpleasant edge. It is no longer a friendly or even civilised joust between rivals. The two sides – Labour and Conservatives (the Lib-Dims are an irrelevance) - now really loathe, hate and detest each other. And that was the driving force behind David Miliband's testimony to the European Scrutiny Committee yesterday afternoon where he sought to defend the EU treaty against all comers.

EU Referendum

Miliband crashes

I've just emerged from an extraordinary evidence session at the European Scrutiny Committee. David Miliband has done himself no good at all with a performance that gets full marks for intellectual heft and vigour, but nul points for diplomacy. If he's like this in ineternational negotiations, look out. Faced with stiff questions from chairman Michael connarty, and Tories James Clappison, Bill Cash and Greg Hands, he rolled his eyes, banged the table, made political jokes about Tories on Europe, and made no attempt to disguise his annoyance at their inability to keep up with his big brain.

Ben Brogan

David Miliband spins the EU Treaty Referendum.

I can't believe that David Miliband has got the cheek to say on Radio 4's Today programme that: "everyone accepted" that the EU Treaty and the old Constitution were completely different. It's very true David they are different, but beyond someone rubbing out Constitution and replacing it with Treaty the change is insignificant.

Daily Referendum

Red Line Row

Exasperated, combative, forensic, playful, petulant... the whole Miliband range was on show as he took on the European Scrutiny Committee ahead of the Lisbon summit. The Foreign Secretary would plainly rather not have spent his afternoon poring over the details of the Amended Treaty/ Constitution with MPs.

Boulton & Co.

Four reasons Tories shouldn't fear Nick Clegg

On the radio this morning Norman Smith of the BBC said that Nick Clegg was the last person Tories want to see winning the Lib Dem leadership. And he's probably right. But are Tories correct to take this view? I don't think so. Here are my four reasons.

Daniel Finkelstein

Cameron pledges to eradicate ‘British Poverty’

…or actually to ‘make British poverty history’. But whichever way it is put, the objective is laudable but quite unattainable. This is a perfect example of where the utopian political vision is set before the people, but the bleak reality of poverty persists a decade after a party gains power, and nothing actually changes. This results in cynicism, contempt for politicians, and the eroding of the credibility of the political process.

Cramner

Age before beauty

If they just thought they needed someone younger, the Lib Dems have made a horrible mistake. Politics doesn't work like that.

Anne Perkins

Tories: a case of premature congratulation?

Andrew Rawnsley made four good points in his Observer column. One: "For a government at the midterm of a third term, Labour's poll ratings are really not at all bad. The main traffic in votes has been between the Tories and the Lib Dems". Two: "...Gordon Brown's reputation has taken a severe hit. But he is still well ahead of David Cameron when pollsters ask who would make the best Prime Minister".

Politaholic

The power of the polls

Back in the summer I wrote a piece titled “Why Voting Intention Polls Matter” largely about the Brown boost in the polls but making the point about the real importance of opinion polling in politics today. It isn’t about predicting what the next election will be, because apart from those taken immediately before an election, polls can’t do that. They aren’t really important because they measure public opinion either - they can do so, you can tell if people’s gut instinct is in favour of inheritance tax or against environmental taxes or whatever, but it takes quite a lot of analysis to get anything concrete out of it.

Polling Report

The Tories are still useless, and if you really want to get Labour out, you should not vote Tory

I give myself a great deal of trouble by attacking the Tories, the party most of my readers want to support. Why do I do this, condemning myself to many angry and often personally rude messages from affronted people? I could easily make everyone happy by quietly dropping this campaign. It would save me hours spent writing letters and e-mails to Tory loyalists who absurdly accuse me, of all people, of wanting to keep Labour in power.

Peter Hitchens

Politics Decoded: Ming the Meek, Tory Triumphalists, Brown the Bully & Age is just a Number

In case you missed it - here is my weekly Politics Decoded column that I write every Tuesday morning over at the Wardman Wire...

Not too old, just no good

Today I was going to write about the imminent departure of Sir Ming Campbell as leader of the Lib Dems – but it appears he has jumped the gun somewhat and beaten me to it. It is widely reported that Ming was just too old for the job and had to go. However, I think this assessment is unfair. Ming wasn’t too old for the job – he was just not very good at it.

Of course, it didn’t help that he looked like Mr Burn’s old brother and that behind his sixty-six years belied a man of what appeared to be one hundred and six, but a good leader is a good leader is a good leader. I imagine if Iain Duncan-Smith had been fifteen years older we would all have put his ineffective leadership down to age as well – as it happened he was a young man (in political terms) and so his failure as a leader was just taken at face value. Winston Churchill was pushing seventy by the time of the battle of Britain – but no-one gave a damn about that as he gave Hitler and the Luftwaffe a lesson in leadership.

OK – so times have moved on and Blair has almost come to characterise what a PM should look like but I still don’t buy the argument that even if you are good enough for the job but over fifty five then forget it. The truth is Ming was ineffective and was always going to be a failure from the first time he asked a question at PMQs as acting leader about acting headmasters only to be met by apoplectic laughter. I’m sure Ming is nice guy, in fact I’m sure he’s a good guy, but you need more than that to lead a party in the House of Commons. Ming just did not have it and I doubt he ever did.

What now for the Tories?

So what now for the Lib Dems? Or should the question be so what now for the Tories? The next step for the Lib Dems is to elect home affairs spokesman Nick Clegg – it’s a no brainer. However what impact will this have on the Tories? The Tories must be a little nervous at the proposition of Ming going – he was virtually their trump card. The Tories would do well to stop gloating so much and really give the next few months a real push to secure their ground in the polls. As I have been saying ever since the Tory surge in the polls a couple of weeks ago, the Tory vote has largely come from the Lib Dems, the Labour vote has held fairly strong, never dropping below 38%.

Nick Clegg will be a popular leader and will get far more attention that Ming did and will be far more effective at attracting back the Tory vote. He is shrewd politician and will have some genuine policies up his sleeve. While Ming liked to bang on about the environment and latterly fixed term parliaments (all good causes but hardly vote winners), Clegg will add some weight to the Lib Dem manifesto. It won’t lead to them soaring in the polls, but it will probably put them back in the low 20s. In which case, the Tories will be back down in the low 30s and Labour will have a comfortable lead in the polls again. I wonder if Brown regrets ruling out that May election, he can’t seem to get anything right…

EU can’t fool us, Mr Brown

The time to Gordon Brown signing the EU Treaty is drawing ever closer. The way Brown has handled this whole affair is another example of his poor strategic nous. He knows full well that this treaty is no different from the constitution – even his party is saying so. Yet he thought he could fool the electorate by saying it was different. Now he has seen that we aren’t as dumb as he’d hoped, he is trying to say that if he can not secure the red lines then we will have a referendum. I presume he will be voting no in that referendum if he doesn’t secure the red lines? The fact is whatever happens we won’t be getting a referendum because Brown knows he will lose. The only thing worse than that would be going to a referendum anyway and being seen as changing policy again on the back of Tory pressure. The man is playing party politics with our sovereignty and it is not on.

You’re never too old

A MORI poll in 2004 was conducted to try and discover who Britain’s greatest PM of all time was. Here is the top ten –

1. Clement Attlee
2. Winston Churchill
3. David Lloyd George
4. Margaret Thatcher
5. Harold Macmillan
6. Tony Blair
7. Herbert Asquith
8. Stanley Baldwin
9. Harold Wilson
10. Lord Salisbury

Note – Clement Attlee was 62 when he came to office and Winston Churchill was 66. He was then re-elected at the grand old age of 77. Ming, you were a mere whipper-snapper.

The Poliblogs 16th October 2007

Red Card and Red Faces.

Did you see the look of guilt-fuelled panic on the face of Simon Hughes, President of the Lib Dems on Newsnight last night. At least the impressive Vince Cable managed to look innocent - even if he wasn't. Both were desperately trying to persuade us that it was all Ming's own decision to resign. How stupid they must think we are. Kirsty Wark has a job keeping a straight face as she read our their own quotes back to them.

A view from Rural Wales

Ding-Dong-Ming

Ming's off. It's been coming, of course, the polls dropping and the spectre of fighting the Tories for the next two years with the old boy up front has scared the willies out of, well, pretty much everyone in the party, with the inevitable result that he's been invited to adjourn to his office with a bottle of mineral water and a pearl-handled organic muesli bar. It's sad, in a way, he's a good bloke with a lot more integrity than the average politician (who would you prefer to be stuck on a desert island with? Him or Hazel Blears? Not a hard question, is it?) but probably inevitable. The best replacement for a drunk Charlie Kennedy was always a sober Charlie Kennedy, after all.

Blair Watch

Was age or lack of charisma the reason Ming quit?

I doubt Ming’s age of 66 was the real reason for his resignationimage asimage Lib Dem party leader, more his lack of oomph or charisma, his inability to connect (my favourite word) with voters. It was his greyness of character rather than the colour of his hair that let him down, despite these brave words expressing his determination to prove his critics wrong:

Ellee Seymour

Ming Campbell: a man who has done a lot to take the Liberal Democrats forward

I’m sad to hear that Ming has resigned tonight. As one of his Vice Chairs of the Federal Policy Committee I’ve had the opportunity to work with and get to know him over the last year and a half and have had a chance to see what he has really done for the party.

Jeremy Hargreaves

Is anyone in with a chance besides Clegg & Huhne?

The Betfair market is now open (although bizarrely the opening show featured Danny Alexander but not Kennedy!) and Ed Davey and Steve Webb have just been added to the list. Nick Clegg has got off to an early start as a red-hot favourite at 1.55 with Chris Huhne currently at 5 (4/1 in old money).

Political Betting

The future is not bright for the Lib Dems

If you believe the hype from those that kill it is said that the first time you do it is the hardest, the second time is much much easier. This is certainly true in the political world it seems where Cowley Street became the crime scene of yet another gang land stabbing incident in the capital. There was no hesitation, no mild stab in the stomach causing the victim to slowly bleed to death. No. This time it was a swift injection of steel into the base of the neck driving upwards. Dare I say it was textbook commando stuff?

Dizzy Thinks

If Newsnight Doesn't Understand, How Can Anyone Else?

So let me get this right; according to the combination of Newsnight and BBC Ten O'Clock News, Simon Hughes is the representative of the social democratic wing of the party, Nick Clegg is represents both the economic liberal wing and the right wing, and Steve Webb and Chris Huhne represent the left wing. If the telly was mine I'd be throwing things at it...

Long Despairing Young Something

Tilter

As well as fighting in Europe for his fabled ‘red lines’, Brown’s hapless troops must play their part to defuse one of Blair’s little Euro time-bombs. As picked up in Mr Unslicker’s weekend roundup below, in his last attendance at the Council of Ministers in March Blair was party to the agreement that the EU would collectively meet a ‘binding’ obligation for 20% of its primary energy needs to be met by ‘renewables’ by 2020.

The CityUnslicker

Labour’s Plans to Gerrymander the next election

Labour MPs are apparently calling on the law to be changed to limit spending between elections. This is because those in marginal seats believe the Conservative Party are spending too much money in marginal seats and this will cost them their places. If this argument was somehow objective, you might be able to give it some credence. But of course it’s not. What Labour MPs are really saying is “we already enjoy a massive advantage, please can we have yet further help”. Consider how the balance of power is balanced between an incumbent Labour MP and his opponent:

Ed Vaizey

Uber and out

Thankfully the Conservative party is finally distancing itself from 'modernisers' and beginning to look like a government in waiting.

Tim Montgomerie

After the binge, the hangover

Despite the sniping, Gordon Brown is Labour's best asset and he should get back to the plan of governing solidly.

David Clark

Towards a principled policy on Labour Party funding?

There are less than two weeks to go before (hopefully) the last meeting of the three main political parties under the aegis of the Hayden Phillips inquiry into how our democracy should be paid for. Issues have become further muddied with a recent £10k increase per annum in allowances payable to sitting members of Parliament to communicate with their constituents.

Peter Kenyon

Grilling for Miliband tomorrow

Some of his colleagues say the Reform Treaty deal has been re-written behind closed doors to ensure [ that the 'red lines' ] are rubbed out within five years. Michael Connarty MP, chairman of the Commons Committee scrutinising the Treaty, says the European Court wants to apply EU law across the board and will not accept a permanent exemption for the UK.

Prodicus

Happy British diplomats

To read newspaper stories of EU bullying and Britain's red lines collapsing you would think that the British delegation to Luxembourg would be in a ferment. Not a bit of it. Britain has hardly entered the debate on the treaty except to endorse it.

Mark Mardell