Saturday, 4 August 2007
Friday, 3 August 2007
Election murmurs
There has been massive speculation recently as to whether Gordon Brown should be capitalising on the "Brown Bounce" and calling a general election in October. I thought I'd add my pennies worth in to the debate as a result...
First and foremost, whether Brown calls an election now or next year or even 2009, I believe he will win. The electoral system is so heavily balanced in his favour at the moment the Tories would need to win at least 5-6% more at the polls just to be the largest party. If they were to win with an overall majority they would need something like 10% or more. Grossly unfair, but the way it is. Considering the mid-term polls at the very best have struggled to show this sort of lead even at a time when everyone wanted Blair to go with scandal after scandal and Iraq criticism was raining down on the party it is unlikely that Cameron will turn this round any time soon. So, if this is the case the true aim of an election for Labour should be increasing their majority as much as possible. There would be little point going to the electorate if the result was less seats in the Commons.
The obvious thing to do, therefore, would be to go to the polls ASAP. Cameron's Conservatives (as they are now known, aren't they?) are sinking in the polls and the Brown bounce is well and truly bouncing. Yet I do not think now is the right time to go and I also do not think Brown will go to the polls now either. Here's why:
Firstly - the boundary changes are going to favour the Tories and right now increasing on that 66 majority would still be pretty tough to do. I think Labour will also have to expect that they will lose some seats in the South regardless of the Brown bounce and Cameron's current ratings.
Secondly - Labour are in pretty serious financial troubles. While I do not think that this is enough to stop them going to the polls as money will be found if needed, Brown still has time to woo some donors and prepare for a more effective campaign at a later date.
Thirdly - As Paul Linford pointed out, it would appear cowardly to the electorate if Brown went now. Far to opportunistic. Brown is a man of principle not of cheap opportunity grabbing. Any early election will be perceived as a lack of belief in the Brown bounce that it can last. Holding his nerve will show true confidence in his ability as leader.
Fourthly - October is a bad time for elections. Less people will come out to vote, the darker evenings and colder weather will put people off. Brown wants a real mandate and wants Labour supporters out en masse.
Prior to Brown taking over I felt that he might as well hold out as long as possible - why bother going to the polls three years early? Given the rumblings and rumours, I feel that he will now go early - but not too early. June next year is a whisper I had from a prominent Labour MP's researcher (though whispers are hardly fact, I admit!). Spring or early summer 2008 would make sense to me and that is where I will be putting my money.
Cue October election and egg on my face!
The Poliblogs 3rd August 2007
Precision tax relief
The minority status of Stephen Harper's Conservative government in
In the meantime we'd like to draw your attention to one of their most interesting policy strategies.
Election speculation
So, the leaked Gould memo suggests that an early election is being seriously contemplated by Labour. I have to admit that the first reaction I had on hearing this was that it was surely proof that an early election was not being contemplated - why else would they leak the document? Leaving such cynicism aside for a moment, what would an autumn election be likely to bring, and what impact would the outcome have on British politics?
Underestimated?
Paul Linford in the Derbyshire Telegraph makes a remark that has cropped up time and again in comment on the Tories:
Mr Cameron's big strategic mistake over the past month was not to have gone to
Cue nodding of heads.
But I have a problem with this observation.
George Galloway 'to run against Jack Straw'
Respect MP George Galloway is weighing up a number of options for his political future, according to Scottish newspaper The Herald. Earlier speculation that he will not stand for
Although he is committed not to seek a second term in Bethnal Green and Bow, other possibilities could include taking on Jack Straw in Blackburn, former SWPer Jim Fitzpatrick in Poplar and
A culture that can never fail
Whilst the silly season is truly upon us it also means that another season is about to arrive. It with startling regularity now that I write a post like this somewhere online every year, and yet every year it has to be done. For it is not just silly season but it also exam result season. In a matter of weeks the results will be in for all those 16 and 18 year old who have taken GCSEs and A-Levels respectively, and with it comes the commentary and opinion of which I guess this post forms a part.
Who benefits from an early election?
Let's ignore the high politics and the messages for a moment and think about some of the more predictable factors.
But why are more people saying they will vote Tory?
Now here’s a funny thing - in the three Guardian ICM polls for January-March 2007 the firm was reporting leads for Cameron’s party of 6% - 10%. Yet looking at the raw data FEWER people were telling the pollster then that they planned to vote Conservative than in ICM’s three published polls in July.
The role of William Hague
At the end of last year this site advocated William Hague replacing George Osborne as Shadow Chancellor with Mr Osborne moving to the foreign affairs post or to the Chairman's slot. That advice wasn't taken but the status of William Hague remains a big issue. Iain Dale has written an interesting article for this morning's Telegraph. He advocates a bigger role for William Hague and other right-wingers in keeping the Conservative Party together during these rough times and into the future. He believes that William Hague should become David Cameron's official deputy. In ConservativeHome's poll of grassroots members Mr Hague recently reasserted his position as the most highly rated shadow cabinet minister. He could help core vote Tories to understand Project Cameron.
Cameron is wrong about the European referendum – and by making it an issue he’s hauling up the white flag for the next General Election
As regular readers of this blog know, I am passionately committed, almost to the point of obsession, about accountability and democracy, for example in local health services.
So why do I find myself opposed to a referendum on the European Reform Treaty? It seems rather a counter-intuitive, anti-democratic and an unpopular view to take so I think it needs a bit of explanation.
EU cut and paste?
So the official English translation of the new draft EU treaty is now available for your perusal (PDF link). The weighty constitution died a death in 2005 when French and Dutch voters threw it out. The government says the new draft is inherently different from the old treaty. Therefore they don't, they say, as they promised for the consitution, need to hold a referendum to approve it. But the Conservatives contend much of it is the same - and that all that's happened is a cut and paste job.
Have you seen this man?
Iain Dale has his monthly table of shadow cabinet media mentions up and as always it makes for interesting reading. Amazingly, Peter Ainsworth, the Tory environment spokesman, got a mere 57 mentions in July despite the 24/7 media coverage of the floods. Indeed, his Liberal Democrat opposite number Chris Huhne got more attention than Ainsworth as did 18 of his shadow cabinet colleagues.
Is Ken right on Boris?
Yesterday morning Ken Livingstone told the Today programme that Boris Johnson "is the most formidable opponent I will face in my political career." He described Boris Johnson as a "charming and engaging rogue" who makes Norman Tebbit "look like a cuddly liberal." For someone who has traded on his image rather than his policies Livingstone seemed surprisingly keen to move on to policies saying "I want to get onto the policy...I mean this is not a sort of Celebrity Big Mayor, it's a serious issue about how you run the city."
Thursday, 2 August 2007
The Poliblogs 2nd August 2007
Should Gordon Brown call a snap general election?
Should Gordon Brown call a snap general election for this autumn? There’s certainly plenty of speculation at
On the face of it, it might prove a smart move. The ‘Brown bounce’ sees the new prime minister around six points ahead of the Tories in the polls. That’s quite a pay-off simply for not being Tony Blair.
Brown's guessing game
There are signs that
The great election conundrum
I've left a few comments here and there on other people's blogs with regard to the ongoing debate over whether Gordon Brown will call a snap autumn election, but not so far specifically blogged on it myself.
So what's my view? Well, at the risk of making an almighty arse of myself if El Gordo announces he's going to the country tomorrow, I don't think an election this year is in any way likely, for two main reasons.
Election speculating
So what do you reckon? Do you think that Gordon Brown will call a UK General Election in the autumn, perhaps in October?
I only ask because of a certain twitchiness in the body politic which is displaying unwarranted signs of life for these dog days of August. Today, for example, we learn that the SNP are accelerating their candidate selection process, in order to be ready.
The revolution enters a new phase
Philip Gould's memo laying out what Gordon Brown needs to do to win an early election makes for fascinating reading. Especially notable is Gould’s belief that elections can’t be won on ‘schools n’ hospitals’ or ‘investment versus Tory cuts’ any more. He writes that:
Early Election?
With Labour having a reasonable lead in the opinion polls recently it is hardly surprising that speculation has increased on the prospect of an early election.
Congested railways
The government’s statement last week on the railways was Groundhog Day. It was deja vue all over again. I have lost count of how many times Crossrail and Thameslink have been announced. The funding for Crossrail remains delayed owing to the late arrival of the incoming banknotes. Crossrail is an expensive way of increasing capacity.
The main problem with the railways is lack of capacity. On that government and opposition are now agreed.
87% of members want David Cameron to remain leader
The latest survey of Tory members suggests that there is very little support for those maverick MPs who want to change the party leader. Given four options, 87% of members chose an option which would see David Cameron continuing as leader. Only 8% thought David Cameron should resign or be challenged.
You've Paid For It
The latest f*ck-up in the NHS, I mean. Full details here, but I would just like to highlight a few things. Firstly:
How the bloggers are making politics more febrile, more fun - and more challenging
I have a confession to make about a relatively new habit. I do it at least three times a day. Such is the relentless pull that I shall be indulging at least once as I write this column. For the moment the addiction is not especially harmful to me, but might be to others, especially leaders seeking to get a grip on their parties.
Steve Richards – The Independent
Steve Richards on political blogging
Steve Richards has written a rather glowing and complimentary piece in this morning's Independent about blogs. Interestingly he notes that he tends to find himself reading right wing blogs more than anything else and goes on to say,
Probably part of the reason for the blogging hyperactivity on the right is the current turmoil in the Conservative Party. When a party seeks a new sense of direction after three election defeats there is scope for endless debate, heightened by fleeting moments of fuming anger and joyful euphoria.
EXCLUSIVE Ali Miraj : Labour Did Approach Me to Defect
Guido spoke at length with Ali Miraj last night and learnt that there was, as widely rumoured, an approach from a Labour party intermediary and that he turned down the approach. He told Guido that he did not take it that seriously and he would never defect.
Why
It’s a truism with EU documents that the devil is in the detail, but truisms are called that because they are, well, true. And few people seem to have realised the profound importance of footnote 18 to the proposed draft wording for a replacement of Article 6 on fundamental rights.
Swifter than eagles. And stolen
First there was shock. Then there was grief. Then rage. There was a moment of shock when I rounded the corner the other night because, no matter how often it has happened to you, it is always a gulp-making thing to look at the railings where you left your bike, and see that for the seventh time in as many years some cowardly little fiend has used a combination of violence and ingenuity to steal it.
The challenge for Boris
There is both a must-read and a must-hear on the Boris for
Bloggers should Scrutinise UK Government Written Statements
Amidst all the news about the floods and the new Prime Ministerial initiatives by Gordon Brown, last week more than 100 UK Government “Written Parliamentary Statements” were released in the 2 or 3 days before Parliament closed for the summer 10 week break.
Witanagemot Political Blog Awards 2007
Question to Northern Irish bloggers - is Slugger really that good or are you really that bad?!
Wednesday, 1 August 2007
Blogroll
Top Political Blogger
As you will probably have noticed, Iain Dale is compiling a new list of the top 100 bloggers - this time chosen by any one who wishes to vote. Many sites are publishing their top 20. I will also be voting before the deadline closes on the 15th. I am genuinely unsure who is going to make the cut however. Blogs go through their ups and downs like anything else and my top 20 this week may well be different from my top 20 next week. I may introduce a column on the right hand side to indicate who I think the form bloggers are at any one time...I think I have decided one thing though, that Political Betting will get my vote at the top spot.
The Poliblogs 1st August 2007
An early election? Not on Brown's watch
Peter Riddell explains clearly this morning why Gordon Brown is likely to resist the temptations of an early election. He doesn't mention cash constraints, and he's right not to. If Mr Brown needs the cash, it will be there. And, in any case, the role of cash in election campaigns is greatly over stated - this is not
The world stage
Opinion: What Brown should be saying to Bush
Recently Lib Dem leader Ming Campbell commented on three things that Gordon Brown should be saying to George Bush;
Deal on
When we saw Gordon Brown for drinks in the Waldorf Astoria bar last night, he was brimming with enthusiasm. And who can blame him? He had just come from a successful
BBC Poll Results Belie Claim
To mark next month’s sixtieth anniversary of the independence of
Peter Franklin: Of kettles and car engines - why nuclear power is not the solution to energy security
National security is an all important issue, and the security of our energy supplies a vital part of this equation. Thus the Dave-baiters couldn’t believe their luck when the National and International Security Policy Group, chaired by Dame Pauline Neville-Jones – now a member of the Shadow Cabinet , appeared to contradict the Conservative leader on the subject of nuclear power.
President Robert Mugabe's incompetence reaches new heights as the Zimbabwean bank issue a $200,000 note and the IMF predict inflation at 4,500 per cent. The new note has been issued due to the fact that the $100,000 note (pictured above) now only has an official exchange rate of $7.58 ($0.58 on
It really is the economy, stupid
David Cameron only has himself to blame - trying to win 'hearts and minds' while postponing hard policy debate was a dreadful mistake.
How much damage has Miraj done?
The ongoing saga that is the Tory party took another turn today with the revelation from David Cameron that Ali Miraj, the former parliamentary candidate who had attacked his leader, had only yesterday asked to be made a peer.
Coming out fighting
David Cameron demonstrated that his days of Bullingdon Club destruction aren't that far behind him when he came out attacking those who have criticised him in recent days with the tried and tested method of playing the man and not the ball.
Keeping order?
So Ali Miraj, whose extraordinary criticisms of David Cameron I first reported on the Ten O'Clock News on Monday night, is struck off the list of approved candidates for the Conservative Party.
The view from the leadership, his behaviour was completely unacceptable and he therefore should be punished.
Cameron is beginning to reassert his authority
Candidates should always enjoy a certain freedom of expression. I am glad, for example, that Eurosceptic candidates are free to support the Better Off Out campaign, despite the frontbench's commitment to EU membership. Many candidates take strong positions against the
The world's biggest list of really annoying, offensive, niggling, irritating, infuriating, thoughtless, fat-headed, arrogant, anti-social behaviour
Here's your chance to perform a service to mankind. We're going to help create a nicer, more civilised society. Sort of.
Between us we are going to draw up a comprehensive list of anti-social behaviour. Not big things - murder, rape, impolite use of chemical weapons - but the small and medium sized things that make life just that bit more irritating.
Brown still sending Blair abusive emails
Gordon Brown is in regular contact with his predecessor Tony Blair through a relentless stream of angry, foul-mouthed emails.
The Prime Minister's spokesman said Mr Blair's 10 years in power meant Mr Brown would always look to him as a source of raw hatred.
