The Weekend Poliblogs 8th & 9th September

Discretion: The Better Part Of Valour?

David Cameron let some of his frustration show at critics of his leadership within the party today, but perhaps not all of it.

In a speech at the Tories' glitzy new headquarters, high above Westminster in Millbank Tower, he urged his audience to "Forget about those on the left who say I shouldn't talk about Europe, crime or lower taxes.....or those on the right who say I shouldn't talk about the NHS, the environment or well-being."

Adam Boulton

Rifkind: Brown is playing cynical politics with appointments

Gordon Brown's raids on Tory ranks have tested David Cameron's commitment to consensual politics. He's furious about it, but he can't say so for fear of playing into the Clunking Fist. Instead he's had to smile and sound gracious. Tonight though something has snapped. Sir Malcolm Rifkind has been sent out to accuse Gordon Brown of an abuse of power. His argument is that the PM is using Government appointments to score political points (Surely not!).

Ben Brogan

Stephan Shakespeare: The Tories aren't doing better in the marginals

When polls are spun, we should be very nervous. The purpose of a poll is to provide independent evidence about what people think, evidence that may be used to measure progress or justify a particular strategy. When polling data is misinterpreted, it’s therefore worse than having no data at all, because it gives us confidence in a proposition that may be false. A recent analysis of voter preference in the marginal seats presents just such a danger.

Conservative Home

SNP plans highlight the need for an English Parliament

The plans announced by the SNP on Wednesday show that Scotland's devolved parliament has started to develop in to a real asset for Scottish people, and further highlights the lack of a similar parliament for England.

Norfolk Blogger

Coulson's progress

I promised a few days ago an interim report on Andy Coulson's first weeks in office. So here are a few impressions, based I admit on too little evidence to be definitive. He's only just joined the circus, so we should wait until after conference at least before hazarding anything more concrete. But first a disclaimer: I met him for the first time on his second day in the job back in July, and have had several conversations with him since. And that is the extent of our personal contact.

Ben Brogan

Completely Missing the Point

Government silly initiative of the week, they're going to give pregnant women £200 towards them eating healthily. They'll be given it in their 29th week of pregnancy. Now there is no way of knowing what this money is sent on, no concern about what these women eat before the 29th week of their pregnancy, and surely it becomes more problematic to feed children after the are born from a financial point of view since you are actually buying separate food??

Caroline Hunt

People are ready for the low tax argument

I have, for some time now, argued that Cameron's Tories are far too timid. I have argued, time after time, that people are ready to hear the low tax argument: they have seen that plowing vast piles of money into public services does not automatically make them better, and they are ready—no, eager—to believe that cutting taxes will not, therefore, make public services worse.

Devil’s Kitchen

Avoiding past mistakes

Gordon Brown has some vital lessons to learn from the winter of discontent ahead of this week's Trades Union Congress.

James Moher

City doubts about the Bank of England

It has been a shared mantra of government and the City that Bank of England independence is a fine thing. Both sides have joined in this misrepresentation of what happened 10 years ago when Gordon Brown took over at the Treasury. Both sides have liked the fairly low interest rates and the fairly low inflation that characterised the period up to 2006.

John Redwood

The UK economy - after the turmoil, what next for mortgages?

The impact of the credit crunch caused by the US sub prime mortgage mis-lending is still spreading through the global markets and rarely a day passes without at least one UK sub prime lender, let alone US lenders, announcing an increase in rates and/or a tightening of criteria. The speed and scale with which the problems have spread around the globe is unprecedented and banks and investors are now so frightened of what they don’t know, ie where the black holes are, that most are not prepared to invest in anything other than top quality stock, which basically means Government securities.

Political Blogging

Will the TUC be a "yes" men to Gordon Brown on the EU Constitution?

Radio Five this morning were having a pre conference chat with TUC officials and finished their chat with the thorny topic of the EU Constitution referendum.

Norfolk Blogger

J.D. Wetherspoon talks sense on underage drinking

I caught an interview with Tim Martin, the founder of the J.D. Wetherspoon pub chain, on the Today programme yesterday morning.

Martin said that the crackdown on underage drinking had in many ways proved counterproductive. Earlier generations of teenagers had learned about alcohol through drinking beer in pubs from the age of about 16. Though their presence there was technically illegal, no one worried about it too much as long as they behaved themselves.

Liberal England

United States of America Follies 3: The Death Penalty does not Work

I’ll just mention one - very telling - phrase. Clive Stafford-Smith describes George Bush’s reforms to “speed up” the system as a way to kill innocent people more quickly. I have attached a couple of graphics from the Death Penalty Information Centre website. Click on the images for the full graphics.

Official Scottish Government: Matt Wardman

So do the Tories really believe in society?

Margaret Thatcher said society didn't exist. Now David Cameron's trying to mend it. No wonder he's so keen to shed the Iron Lady's legacy. This, by and large, is the theme of today's Newcastle Journal column looking back at the week's political developments.

Paul Linford

How Christian is Britain?

Since the religion question was added to the census in 2001 this has become a recurring debate on blogs - I was reminded of it when I saw Cramner’s blog talking about Iain Dale’s little survey of his readership where Cramner wrote “The 45% who profess belief in a deity is massively beneath the national average. In the 2001 census, just over 70% professed the Christian faith”.

Polling Report

TUC Conference, Brighton

Gordon Brown is about to deliver a speech to the TUC pledging to deliver "British jobs for British workers". This a day after the home secretary pledged to force immigrants to speak English. These moves are described in a number of papers as part of the new PM's determination to occupy the centre ground.

Nick Robinson

Gordon goes where Dave can't

“British jobs for British workers”: Gordon Brown has road-tested this muscular phrase many times before, not least when he accepted the Labour leadership in Manchester in front of a Union Flag the size of a small constituency. But today, at the TUC, he puts patriotic flesh on the bones promising an “extra 500,000 British jobs for British workers".

Coffee House

Tough times ahead for Brown only add to Cameron’s woes

Gordon Brown must be relieved that Labour has slipped in the opinion polls. The party’s clear lead during the summer suggested that the government could substantially increase its majority in an early election. The news was too good for comfort, putting pressure on the prime minister to call an autumn poll, something which was not in his game plan.

Michael Portillo

The Poliblogs 7th September 2007

Awkward moments

He emerged smiling – but this wasn’t the most comfortable of Parliamentary occasions for Alex Salmond. I’m talking about today’s session of questions to the First Minister.

Blether with Brian

EU referendum campaign needs better numbers

Sad to report there were no surprise faces around the inflatable ballot box installed in Victoria Gardens just now to mark the launch of the latest cross-party campaign for a referendum on the EU constitution reform treaty. Derek Scott is the chairman, Kate Hoey, Frank Field and Graham Stringer were there for Labour, Greg Hands, Mark Pritchard, David Heathcoat-Amory and Michael Gove (who refused interviews) for the Tories. The Lib Dem guy didn't turn up. UKIP wasn't invited.

Ben Brogan

Full employment: still a political priority

Full employment always used to be a basic tenet of the post-war consensus, not a transitional demand from outer space. Yet for the last three decades, it has effectively been written off as a policy objective.

Dave’s Part

Immigration to self: Do you have a helicopter pad?

I had a phone call today from Immigration, who opened the conversation with the question (with no preliminaries, and they didn’t say who they were until I asked): Do you have somewhere for helicopters to land?

The Official Scottish Government: Matt Wardman

Where next for the UK Economy?

We live in interesting times right now. September and October are traditionally the most volatile months of the year. All the problems with the credit crunch are working themselves through, but slowly and still more opaquely than the governments and central banks would like.

CityUnslicker

Why does anyone bother to vote?

Daniel Hannan questions the conventional wisdom about political participation. He argues that we should make voting harder rather than easier so that people value it more. He's obviously one of those Tories who are against weekend voting. While his suggestion is mischievous, there was wisdom in this Hannan observation:

Daniel Finkelstein

Robert McIlveen: The centre ground should be on our terms

The Labour party, and much of the media, tell us we’re “lurching to the right.” Many in this party, and on this website, despair that we’re “charging to the centre.” Apparently David Cameron is doing both, neither or some combination of them, depending on who you read. But what is the centre that we are heading towards or fleeing from? Where is it and does it matter?

Conservative Home

Dave's Big Idea, pt 7: Voluntary National Service

So, David Cameron wants to give all 16-year-olds the chance to spend their post-GCSE summer doing something useful, like community service or military training. He thinks about 650,000 people would take this up, but doesn't know how much it would cost. He is, however, fairly sure "It would save money in the long run by reducing crime and antisocial behaviou". Exactly hwo he knows this, I don't know.

The Diary of Chris K

A Tory Policy Everyone Can Unite Behind

David Cameron has got the best coverage in The Sun this morning that he has had since he bcame Party leader. The Sun highlights Cameron's excellent policy idea of encouraging 16 year olds to take part in a six week stint of 'national' service. It's not a stunt and it's extremely well thought out, as the article clearly demonstrates.

Iain Dale

Unwilling volunteers

David Cameron's plans for 'national citizen service' are ambitious, but they are unlikely to attract the hard-to-reach kids he most wants to engage.

Michael White

I Don't Care If It's Mr Cameron Proposing It, It's a Rather Good Idea

One of my pet policies, which i've always thought would be brilliant to see implemented, is the idea of a charity or volunteer work-oriented form of national service for 16-year olds. The name of "Citzen's Service" which Mr Cameron has attached to it is substantially better than any i could come up with.

Hunting for Witches

Up Yours!

The British government has no plans to hold a referendum on the new EU treaty, Miliband has declared. He was speaking to a joint news conference with his Spanish counterpart Miguel Angel Moratinos, prior to today's meeting of the foreign ministers in Portugal to discuss the new EU treaty.

EU Referendum

LibDems should wake up and smell the coffee

For Ming just doesn’t work. He sounds and looks feeble and past it. His Commons performances are weak, his television soundbites limp. He hasn’t given his party any sense of direction. When Gordon Brown tried to mug the Libs by putting Paddy Ashdown in the Cabinet without offering policy concessions, Ming said he needed to think about it overnight. He has got to go.

Suz’s Blog

Warwick Lightfoot's manifesto offers comprehensive programme for improving London

ConservativeHome has been given an advance look at Warwick Lightfoot's manifesto for London. At the heart of the manifesto is a commitment to tackle crime but its comprehensive and thoughtful content is its overall hallmark. Mr Lightfoot promises:

Conservative Home

The bendy own-goal?

It's no surprise that Ken Livingstone's rivals have seized on bendy buses as a genuine political issue.

Gwyn Topham

RIP

The Poliblogs 6th September 2007

Lord Justice Sedley: put everyone on the DNA database

Many years ago, when I studied Administrative Law at university, our lecturer would preface every single discussion of any court case involving Mr Justice Sedley (as he then was) with the words that the learned judge was a ’staunch defender of human rights’. It was therefore with mild alarm that I read this morning that the selfsame judge has suggested we should all be put on a DNA database.

Bel is thinking

Slap drones for everyone

Lord Justice Sedley has said that the retention of DNA samples for some of the UK population, as is current state policy, involves bias against ethnic minorities. It would be fairer, the judge claims, to collect DNA from everybody in the UK, even visitors.

Let’s move past the vision in obtuseness that requires every person in the land to wait in line for DNA sampling and ask the obvious question: why is the current national DNA database (NDNAD) biased?

Perfect

Setting the agenda

Pragmatic politics or a timid climb-down? What do you reckon to the Scottish Government’s legislative programme?

With a light smile, Alex Salmond openly acknowledged that his programme wasn’t exactly as billed. But then, as he also acknowledged, he doesn’t have a majority at Holyrood.

Blether with Brian

Drunk in charge of a dog

We read that: The grandmother of Ellie Lawrenson was nearly twice the legal drink-drive limit when the five-year-old was mauled to death by the family dog, a court has heard. She failed to take proper care with a dog and a child. From the other reports of the case, the dog had been scared by fireworks and she should have handled it accordingly. She should not have let it near a child if it was behaving strangely. Drink has nothing to do with it.

Freeborn John

Brown: a true son of Thatcher

The PM has openly praised the Iron Lady. You shouldn't be surprised, though - he has been a closet Thatcherite for years.

Simon Jenkins

David Cameron gets the White Van Man vote

"They ought to bring back national service"

...The clarion call of white van men, cab drivers and retired colonels everywhere.

Well that's what David Cameron wants to. All 16/17 year-olds should go on a "boot camp" and wrap themselves in the Union Jack, he reckons. In fact, he initially proposed this in 2005 but he has pulled it out of his "in case of emergency lurch right" box to fit in with his "on the hoof" PR "programme".

Liberal Burblings

Coalition for the nation?

Hit tip to Jonathan Calder for his heads up about Mark Oaten's article in The Times publicizing his new book, Coalition, which suggests that we must not be afraid to contemplate a coalition with whoever gets the most seats in a hung parliament, even if that means doing a deal with the Tories. I'm afraid I don't share Mark's own suggestion that because the Tories have joined us in the lobbies against many of Tony Blair's civil liberties erosions it necessarily gives us common ground to work on.

Jock’s Place

How much of the bounce was down to media Gordomania?

It seems now like it comes from a different age but the above was how that normally level-headed paper, the Guardian, was reporting British politics less than a month ago.

To have equated the bungled and amateurish attack on Glasgow airport, the consequences of a couple of heavy rain-storms and a few cows getting a disease with, say, Churchill’s first month in May 1940 was just plain silly.The journalist who wrote such drivel and the editor who passed it, no doubt, feel embarrassed. But it does reflect the mood of the time that seemed to affect all parts of the media. But reminding ourselves of the extraordinary honeymoon that Brown enjoyed does put the current polling turbulence in context.

Political Betting

Titan Rain - is there any evidence of actual Chinese government cyber attacks on the United Kingdom?

Following on from the media reports that the German Chancellor Angela Merkel about email malware targeted at German goverment computer systems when she visited the Chinese communist regime in Beijing, on Monday, the Financial Times reported vague or anonymous US reports about an allegedly similar campaign targeting the US Defense Department bureaucracy, dubbed "Titan Rain".

Spy Blog

Fear of crime: officialdom and Labour in denial

The front page of The Sun newspaper carried a story on Saturday of the results of its Ipsos MORI opinion poll. The poll showed a 5% lead for Labour, which is hardly an overwhelming Brown Bounce. With Labour sitting smugly on 41%, Gordon Brown has achieved this: he is not Tony Bliar, and at the moment people are willing to trust him. The other polls are more realistic, showing Labour at around 36%.

The Wilted Rose

Even Mexicans drink more than we Brits

Would it help if I had an example of Tories not running Britain down (or running it down ironically)? The following article was written by Bryony Gordon of The Daily Telegraph and it debunks the popular Tory myth that the country is headed to hell in a hand cart with lager and fag in hand.

Belittle Britain

Cameron should be above dissing his internal critics

David Cameron launches his National Citizen Service idea today. I think it's a great idea but this morning's BBC News bulletins were giving at least as much attention to Mr Cameron's putdown of Michael Ancram. This is what the Conservative leader told The Sun (my emphasis):

Conservative Home

EXCLUSIVE: Electoral Commission Chairman Confirms LibDems May Have to Pay Back £2.4 Million

Last night I interviewed Sam Younger, the chairman of the Electoral Commission. In this ten minute clip from the hour long interview I ask him about various issues to do with political donations.

Iain Dale

Why we need party politics

Since Gordon Brown became leader of the Labour party he has recruited many non-Labour experts to help him in various areas, including Conservative MPs John Bercow and Patrick Mercer recently. Most people think that this sort of thing is a good idea, as it means that the Labour party is ‘putting country ahead of party and getting the best person for the job’. I once shared this approach, but now I am opposed to it. On the surface, it seems harmless at worst, or even beneficial.

Pickled Politics

Democracy and the future: Who represents us socialists?

In my opinion, an issue we all need to consider very strongly within the party and Labour movement. Although arguably the Labour Party itself has never really been a socialist party, it has been the only political and parliamentary mass representation that socialists and social-democrats have ever had access to, and success with in terms of implementation of ideas.

Labour Home

Boris: Why Londoners should vote for me

I am campaigning to be the Conservative candidate for Mayor of London, and, while I do not want to abuse my tenancy of this space, let me briefly say that it is high time the Labour incumbent was removed, and it is high time all 32 London boroughs - from Barnet to Bexley, from Hillingdon to Havering - received value for the average £288 every household is paying for the Mayor; and anyone who wants to find out more about our plans for less crime and improved housing and better transport should now dial up a website called Backboris.com.

Boris Johnson

The Great Silly Season wind-up

The curtain is drawing down on another silly season and it’s back to business very soon in the Westminster village. Of course we have the annual conference season to contend with which always throws up something before we get back in to the business of parliament; but the desperate August hunt by journalist to pick up a story however trivial and the opportunistic back bencher or has been to get himself heard is very much coming to an end. However, this season’s silly season has had a rather unfortunate overtone of seriousness about it what with failed terrorist attacks, flooding, foot and mouth and bouncing Brown. I feel a bit robbed. That was until I realised we have just been witnessing the biggest silly season story of recent times. August polling.

That’s right, the joke was on us this year. It seems like months that we have been asking when will the Brown bounce settle; will Cameron recover; will there be an autumn election? All the time we have been looking to polls that every other year aren’t even compiled – because they are notoriously inaccurate! Of course, they had to be asked – Gordon had just got in to power, Labour wanted the headlines and the papers wanted to write them. Now we are back in business it is becoming more clear that the Brown bounce isn’t all that the polls thought it was, Cameron is still in the game and there almost certainly won’t be an Autumn election. All things we knew three months ago. Nothing has changed. It’s business as usual – Labour have the advantage, the Tories are doing enough to keep themselves in the game and Cameron in the job and the Lib Dems are completely oblivious to the fact that if they do not get rid of Ming they stand to lose half their seats at the next election. In fact, the only thing these polls have shown us is that while Labour and Conservative ratings can yo-yo depending on the day of the week, the Lib Dems are heading in one direction: down.

So I guess the biggest fool of the silly season wasn’t Cameron or the journalists or you or me, it was those Lib Dems who have been laughing at the Tories as they lose their poll ratings, rejoice when Brown loses his bounce and then realise it was all just silly season after all and they are out the game altogether – Autumn election or no Autumn election. They should have kept more an eye on their failed leadership than the leadership of the other two parties.

The Poliblogs 5th September (!) 2007

Time For Election Debates On TV

Should the party leaders debate on television during the next General Election? Not, it would seem, if Gordon Brown has anything to do with it.

At today's Prime Minister's New Conference both I and Newsnight's David Grossman invited him to take up the challenge. He refused even though he was wringing his hands only yesterday calling for "a new politics" to counter voter apathy and poor voter turnout.

Adam Boulton

Tim Bale: The problem of party change

So it looks like the polls, and therefore the party, are back on track after something of an anxious summer. The ‘Brown bounce’ may well be over, its demise apparently hastened by David Cameron’s end of summer ‘fightback’ – a much-welcomed move back on to traditional Tory territory like crime, immigration and Europe, albeit with enough mentions of the ‘broken society’ and ‘three-dimensional approaches’ to keep advocates of the ‘And Theory’ happy.

Conservative Home

A long-term game that no one would have the bottle to try

To tax or not tax, to spend or not to spend. Those are the questions, right? Wrong. They're only the questions for the simpletons amongst the party political crowd. Be it the head bangers to the Right who perpetuate not only a mythical belief in a "core strategy" or the unthinking "anything but the Tories" loons to the Left, everything comes down to this simple reductionist worldview.

Dizzy Thinks

Has Andy Coulson done a good job so far?

Rome wasn’t built in a day, and it was Andy Coulson’s bad luck that the Conservatives’ popularity plummeted soon after be became their director of communications following a run of bad press stories.

Ellee Seymour

It's time for Cameron to get tough- on his own MPs

There are two big reasons why Conservatives are behind in the polls. The first is that Gordon Brown is seen as ‘macho’ and David Cameron as weak, to say the least (how time have changed in recent months!) The second is that voters do not think the Conservative Party is really changing.

Hunter & Shooter

Cameron Puts Brown on the Spot over Debate

Delighted to see David Cameron putting Brown on the spot over his refusal to hold a debate with the other two party leaders during a general election campaign. Here's his letter to Brown...

Iain Dale

If Brown doesn’t show up a leaders’ debate should continue

The Prime Minister told the Downing Street press conference today that, if there is a General Election, he won’t take part in a televised debate with the other party leader.

It grossly contradicts what he said when in opposition- a concept that with which British democracy is all too familiar.

Anthony Hook

Gordon Brown - serial kleptomaniac of political ideas

Just a few days ago, David Cameron proposed a crack down on violent videos and computer games viewed by kids.

Now Gordonius Brownus has stepped in:

Liberal Burblings

Bob Crow - recruiting sergeant for de-unionisation

I wonder how many workers on substantially lower wages and worse terms and conditions than tube staff have been put off joining a trade union by the RMT's unnecessary 72-hour long act of economic vandalism this week and are cursing Bob Crow and his members as they walk home or queue for overcrowded buses?

Luke’s Blog

London grinds to a halt

Peter Watson looks at the causes of the London Underground strike and how it affects all of us. The Unions are striking again. Up there with the French Air Traffic Controllers and baggage handlers this is yet another summer calendar regular. So firstly I would like to say thanks to the unions for keeping to schedule, cheers fellas! I hope you enjoy the time off.

18DS

Will that be “as good as it gets” for Gordon?

It’s a moot point as to whether the honeymoon is finally over, but with the rash of recent polls showing Labour’s lead in the 0-3 point range, it’s generally accepted that the Brown bounce is fading at best (although the Times did note yesterday that Labour are still about 5 points higher than before his arrival). Certainly the polls showing Labour with solid leads of up to 10 points during the summer seem, for now at least, to have evaporated, and an autumn election looks less and less likely, unless there is sufficient improvement in Labour’s position during September such that Parliament could be dissolved by early October at the latest.

Political Betting

Put A Sock In It

Why oh why do some members of the party think that it is a good idea to start in-fighting? It doesn't help anyone except the Labour Party.

The Thunder Dragon

Why Ming Must Be Knifed - Could Kennedy Return?

Click HERE to read Danny Finkelstein's 'more sorry than in anger' destruction of Ming Campbell and his explanation of why the LibDems have to get rid of him. There was a time when I thought the LibDems would do just that, or that over the summer we would hear that he had decided to fall on his sword, citing health reasons. He's clearly not enjoying the job.

Iain Dale

All right then, a manifesto of sorts

I expect to be away for a few weeks and thought I should leave a substantial article to give contributors something to chew on during that time. One correspondent recently suggested that I should draw up a manifesto for the non-existent party that I hope will arise when the Tories at last shuffle off their mortal coil and go wherever it is dead parties go.

Peter Hitchens

Brown won't risk it

As I said I would, I have been keeping a daily eye on the betting markets for the date of the next election and the chance of an election this year has dropped off the edge of a cliff. Since Monday the implied chance of an election this year has dropped 12.3 percentage points to a touch over a one in ten chance. Even an election this spring is looking less likely now with that dropping 4.7 points to a 16.2% chance. The money has been shifting to dates from 2009 onwards, with all these dates seeing big increases in their likelihood.

Miscellany Symposium

The Official Scottish Government

There be a wind of change over Matt Wardman's way...

Mr Wardman has rebranded his blog over at the Wardman Wire and it is now to be known as the Official Website of the Scottish Government.

As Matt explains:

"The change is intended to help the public more clearly understand the role and functions of the Government Executive in Scotland. Among those functions are publicity stunts designed to create an illusion that the Executive has the status of a Government."

Potential ministers should apply to “scottishgovernment AT mattwardman DOT com”.

Find out more here

The Poliblogs 4th September 2007

Apologies for the break in communications. A normal service has been resumed...

What does Autumn 2007 hold in the world of politics?

A look ahead to the rest of the year

One of Britain’s wettest ever summers is almost at an end, and after the August lull, “full service” is set to resume in politics as September begins. These are a few of the key issues and events to keep an eye on over the next few months.

Political Betting

The political season kicks off

Today has been quite a day. Gordon Brown has burst back onto the political scene with an agenda-setting appearance on the Today Programme, a march into Conservative territory in The Daily Telegraph and a speech announcing the new politics which contained some very old fashioned points scoring. In Iraq, British forces have pulled back to Basra airport at the same time as George W. Bush has arrived to demonstrate his continuing support for the surge; illustrating just how much British and American strategies are diverging. While in London, Boris Johnson has launched his campaign for mayor. August is definitely over.

Coffee House

A new sort of politics?

"September usually sees the resumption of Westminster politics. But while party politics resumes its normal routines, it cannot - and should not - be business as usual". So said the prime minister in a speech this morning and I wouldn't dare to disagree.

Nick Robinson

Splitter! Splits! Hooray!

Political correspondents can breathe a collective sigh of relief. As we exit the substance desert that was the silly season they can now start writing "party split" stories.

Guido Fawkes

Will Populus disclose the Tory poll?

Anthony Wells of UKPolling Report emails me to tell me that he has asked Populus to disclose the poll referred to by Benedict Brogan in his blog.

He wrote” “Tories say privately their internal Populus poll paints a completely different picture - the parties are level pegging and Mr Cameron’s approval rating is climbing”.

Political Betting

Is the electorate sleepwalking its way to disaster?

If you were shipwrecked on a desert island and had returned to the UK for the first time in many years, you would realise that you were in a country in despair. The Labour Government is one of the most discredited, dishonest and malicious to have ever ruled. And yet it has a spring in its step because Labour has replaced its best ever leader with the man who has run the Treasury for the past 10 years with false distinction.

The Wilted Rose

What Boris Johnson really said

Today's Evening Standard has a report by Andrew Gilligan about the supposed Compass Dossier on Boris Johnson including a section on what he really said compared to what they said he said which I have selected from below. The rest of it can be read on the Standard's website.

Dizzy Thinks

Tories up, Labour down, election off

There's more good poll news for David Cameron later from Populus. It confirms the Labour one-point lead of the private Populus poll run for the Tories late last week. The Tory leader has grabbed the news and recorded an interview for Nick Robinson for the 10 in which he calls on Gordon Brown to "get on and call an election" and predicts a "period of instability" if he allows this will he/won't he nonsense to continue.

Ben Brogan

Surely, no autumn election now?

Gordon Brown had already been doing his best in his Today Programme inteview today to play down the excitable talk about an October 4 election that appeared on various Conservative blogs last Friday, but surely the announcement that disaffected Tories John Bercow and Patrick Mercer are to become government advisers puts paid to the idea.

Paul Linford

The Brown Boost - an update

Back in June when Labour’s rating in polls first began to shoot upwards on the back of Gordon Brown’s approaching premiership I wrote that there were four questions we needed to ponder about the Brown boost. Two months later let’s see if we’re closer to any answers:

Polling Report

Old Old Old

Michael Ancram the FORMER (key word) deputy leader has warned us all today to not loose our “soul” in favour of vacuous new policies.

Well thank the lord he did so as otherwise I think we might have won an election!

UBCF

The Case Against Further Green Taxes

The TaxPayers' Alliance has just published the first ever systematic audit of Britain's green taxes (see here). They conclude that Britain is already paying £10bn pa more in such taxes than the estimated cost of our carbon footprint. That's a stonking £400 pa for every household in the land.

Burning Our Money

Matthew Sinclair: More green taxes – a bad idea and politically dangerous

Today the TaxPayers’ Alliance releases a report setting out the state of green taxes in the UK today. Our findings are stark. We already pay far too much in green taxes, £10 billion or £400 per household per year.

Conservative Home

Read George's Lips "No Spending Cuts, No Choice for Voters"

Last month the Economic Research Council identified 883 New Labour quangos costing £167.5 billion in 2005/06, up from £24.1 billion in 1997/98. That is five times the size of the Defence budget (£32 billion). Does George really think spending has to grow?

Guido Fawkes

What is George Osborne playing at?

Both Iain Dale and Guido have raised eyebrows this morning. What is George Osborne playing at? Stories about Government waste appear in the papers every day. Surely the Tories can easily save money. And if they can't, what's the point of them?

Here's the answer.

Daniel Finkelstein

Boris' launch speech

GLA candidate and one-time mayoral candidate James Cleverly made the introductions at the old County Hall this morning. Then followed a video of Boris talking about what he thought of "the most beautiful city in the world" with various green parts of the city as his backdrop. The video has been uploaded to the home page of the Back Boris website which underwent a transformation overnight.

Conservative Home

Gordon Brown's 'New Politics': socialist exclusion unit

The prime minister today unveiled his vision of a ‘New Politics’. But Gordon Brown’s erection of an even bigger big tent surely marks a further step in the continued rightwards evolution of New Labour.

That can be seen by looking at the track record of the two Tory MPs who will now be helping to making policy for a Labour government.

Dave’s Part

Is Brown tricking the Tories into panic-spending?

With all this election fever being helped along by irresponsible bloggers there is news this morning in the Times this morning that the Conservative Party has authorised a poster campaign for next week. According to the report it is designed to "neutralise Labour claims that Mr Cameron has no substance and does not believe in anything".

Dizzy Thinks

A self-fulfilling prophesy?

The Observer hit the nail on the head yesterday when it noted in its leader that the current political row over a referendum is shabby. David Cameron, it says, calculates that he is in a win-win situation. If there is a referendum, he will have extracted a U-turn from Labour and could front a successful "no" campaign. If there is no referendum, he has made Labour look extraordinarily shifty.

EU Referendum

What's left, right and wrong?

Although the terms of political debate have shifted over the last 25 years, some core values have remained the same.

Conor Foley

Have the Tories lost the confidence of the City of London?

Amazingly the Tories think the best way to shift Labour from government is to promise to match labour's spending pledges for three years. Students of politics will know that Labour promised something similar in 1997, but this was widely seen as a means of easing fears on the foreign exchange markets and in the City of London about Labour's relative lack of economic success when in government. Are the Tories saying they have lost the confidence of the City of London to the extent Labour had in the 1990's ?

Norfolk Blogger

Tough on crime, tough on the causes of fear of crime

This idea of David Cameron's that we're living in "Broken Britain" and of the Sun that we are witnessing "Anarchy in the UK" has been eating at me a bit. And with Dave's essay in the Telegraph outlining his ideas for mending his broken Britain by branding ten year old boys as failures and keeping them down a year at school got me looking out crime statistics.

Jock Place

Telegraph: Sir Ming is the problem

The Daily Telegraph today ponders what bloggers have bene discussing for weeks now - the decline, or at the best invisibility, of the LibDems. The biggest selling UK quality paper decides that their problem isn't policy but the leader of the party, and the Telegraph launch quite a ferocious attack on poor old Sir Ming. Some LibDems have had the guts to say what lots more must be thinking - that he simply cannot stand the pace of a general election and hasn't got what it takes to even be the leader in peace time.

Little’s Log

All black short-lists?

Keith Vaz MP wants a change in the law so political parties can impose all ethnic-minority shortlists. The plan being that in areas where a party think it wants a non-white candidate, it can make sure at least one is picked by the local constituency to represent them at the General Election. We already have all-women shortlists possible through a change in the law. Tories will no doubt complain this amounts to positive discrimination. True, but then so does giving benefits to married couples over single mothers.

Pickled Politics

Whatever Happened To The Far Left?

A couple of weeks ago, I examined the impact of parties to the Right of the Conservatives. This week, I do the same with parties to the Left of Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

Back in the 1980s, quite large numbers of people supported Labour’s policies of nationalisation, unilateral nuclear disarmament, restoration of the right to secondary picketing and the closed shop, and ending the sale of council houses. In fact, I can remember intelligent people at university arguing at the time that East Germany’s economy was outperforming our own, and that the United States was a greater threat to this country than the Soviet Union. Most of the people who held such views must still be alive today.

Political Betting

Get tough on the fear of crime

One of the things that most irritated me about the Orange Book a few years ago was David Laws hectoring the Lib Dems for not doing enough to acknowledge how the fear of crime affects people’s daily lives (I paraphrase as I don’t have the book in front of me right now). Boris Johnson made a similar comment during the launch for his bid for London Mayor today and last week the Observer wrote:

Quaequam Blog

When is a child an adult?

A Freedom of Information Request by the BBC has discovered that over 3,000 crimes were committed by under-10’s who can’t be prosecuted because they are below the age of criminal responsibility. This has naturally led some to ask - including the BBC - whether the age of criminal responsiblity should be lowered.

Wonko’s World

Arnie recoils from the Curse of Cameron

All along the watchtower reports plasible reasons, to do with Californian affairs, as to why Arnold Schwarzenegger will not be attending the Conservative conference this year, as previously widely advertised.

Liberal Burblings

Respect is cursed....says Galloway

Respect faces “oblivion” it is also moribund; weak; exhausted; amateur, mismanaged; unhealthy, irresponsible- George Galloway also suggests that his SWP “allies” are corrupt (giving internal Party jobs to political pals), interferes in internal elections and not pulling their weight in Council elections. He also gives the green light to the homophobes in Respect by condemning efforts to get Muslim Respect Councillors to attend the Gay Pride festival.

Labour Home

Tories Pledge to Make Themselves Utterly Pointless

GORDON Brown will remain prime minister if the Conservatives win the next election, as the party launches a new campaign to make itself completely and utterly pointless.

The Daily Mash