The Poliblogs 11 January 2008

Hain's pain

It's worth recording, as we relish the shambles that is Peter Hain's "campaign" for the deputy leadership, that his share price remains surprisingly high on the Brown market. Sure, we can all have a laugh at the suggestion that Wondertan spent a whacking £200,000 to come fifth in the race for a non-job, far more than any of his so-called rivals. We can enjoy seeing the scourge of Apartheid being exposed as administratively inept. We can can even wonder that someone who can't keep track of £200k is seen fit to run the welfare state (budget of £100bn plus). And then there's his questionable endorsement of an edgy mortgage firm.

Ben Brogan

Haingate

Tempting as it is to rush to judgement and demand Peter Hain's resignation over the sheer scale of his error regarding £103,156 of undeclared donations, one has to admit that Labour MP, Paul Flynn was right in counselling caution on Radio Wales this morning.

Peter Black

MPs' Pay: A Suicidal Vote?

Just been chatting to an MP who represents a marginal seat who tells me it would be "suicide" for him and other MPs facing a close fight at the next election to vote for an inflation-busting pay rise. My heart bleeds. Poor dears. This was after Harriet Harman had announced to MPs that the Senior Salaries Review Body's recommendations on MPs' pay, pensions and allowances will be published next Wednesday and then MPs will vote on them on January 24.

Boulton & Co.

You don’t curb MPs salaries by taking the decision out of their hands

Harriet Harman has announced that MPs might lose the right to vote on their own salaries and conditions in the future. She is right in one thing, that the public do not like the fact that MPs vote on their own salaries, but scrapping their right to do it will not give them a lower pay rise.

Anders Hanson

Really don't understand this

So, in reaction to the news that MPs are likely to vote themselves a larger pay rise than the 1.9% that Brown wants them to have, the Government have announced a review into whether MPs should retain the right to set their own pay levels. Without getting into the wrongs and rights of whether a pay rise of 2.8% is merited (RPI inflation is running at 4% after all) there's something about this that just doesn't sound right.

Conservative Party Reptiles

If Osborne succeeds in killing Brown's economic reputation, it's all over for Labour

Prosperity On New Year's Day we identified George Osborne as the Conservative to watch this year. He has the task of eroding Gordon Brown's reputation for economic competence - the one thing keeping Labour afloat in a sea of broken promises.

Conservative Home

Nuclear cant

What makes one despair about our provincial government’s nuclear power strategy announced today - apart from the fact that it is years late – is the narrowness of vision and the utter cant of the naysayers. Much is heard, for instance, of charges that the new generation of nuclear plants cannot be built without public subsidy, but virtually nothing is said of the fact that the much-vaunted wind power is taking a subsidy of £1 billion this year, under the so-called "Renewables Obligation" – a sum which is set to increase exponentially as these industrial windmills proliferate.

EU Referendum

Will the nuclear boom harm global warming?

So the government is to give the green light to nuclear. No surprises there then. Part of me would like to be an optimist, denounce the green lobby for being apocalyptic, line up with Jim Lovelock and David King and comfort myself that nuclear is a better alternative to coal and gas. I certainly am fairly dismissive about the “danger” argument (although moving a hundredfold more uranium and nuclear waste around the world, which appears to be where we’re headed, does strike me as a significant security threat).

Quaequam Blog

Did the greens make a return to nuclear power inevitable?

What do governments do when faced with a crisis? Easy. They spend enormous amounts of money. Which is why the enthusiasm with which the environmental movement has talked up the threat posed by human-induced climate change was always likely to lead to the government deciding to back the nuclear option in a big way.

Liberal England

Boris, Brian and Ken Go Head to Head

In an hour-long special edition of London Talking, the three main mayoral candidates for London pitted their debating skills on ITV, giving us all a good foretaste of what we can expect over the next 111 days. Brian Paddick drew the short straw and had to go first, but he held everyone’s attention and commanded respect. It was fascinating to see how keenly Ken Livingstone was listening to him. Indeed, such was Ken’s deference that I suspected that he was even talking up Brian’s chances, in a Machiavellian attempt to stop wavering voters from backing Boris Johnson.

Jonathan Fryer

Why were the polls wrong in New Hampshire?

I don’t regularly report US polls here - there are too many of them and large numbers of dedicated US sites that do it much better than I could, but the New Hampshire primary polls are worth a look: what went wrong? Since the Iowa caucases all the polls had shown Obama leading Clinton, mostly with large, sometimes double digit leads, yet Clinton ended up winning. It’s only one primary, rather than the election itself, but in the scale of the error it’s comparable to the 1992 polls in the this country.

Polling Report

The Late Lunch Briefing

Turkey Sandwiches

There is an old political adage that goes turkeys wouldn’t vote for Christmas. Fortunately for the rest of us, turkeys have never had suffrage and our Christmas traditions are still going strong. But suppose they did hold sway over whether we had Christmas or not – the key component of any self respecting Brit’s overflowing Christmas platter would suddenly be in charge and it would almost certainly spell the end of the annual tradition of turkey sandwiches between December 25^th and New Year.

Now suppose you could choose how much money you were paid at work? I suspect, even if you were being sensible, the temptation to award yourself a pay rise would just be too much to resist. Of course, no business with ambitions to stay afloat would ever give their employees the chance to set their own salary. It would be madness. So why on earth do our MPs get to do it annually?!

How much is an MP actually worth?

Matt Wardman has written an excellent piece on the annual MP pat on the back with a wad of fivers. He is certainly opposed to the idea that MPs not only get to vote themselves a pay rise, but also get the chance to claim an array of benefits – such as housing. Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper are quids in on this arrangement! Matt poses the interesting question of how much should an MP be paid – he reckons MPs’ salaries should be “linked to - for example - the 90th percentile of the individual salary profile of the population, which would mean that only 10% of the population earned more.” This would mean that they get paid, roughly, £46k (according to David Cole) as opposed to £60k basic they are currently on.

Seeing as the turkeys in Westminster do get to vote for Christmas, I cannot see them taking a £14k pay cut! And I am inclined to say I don’t think they should either. Despite the constant criticism and abuse our MPs are subjected to, and I say this through gritted teeth, they are some of the best political representatives in the world. You may not agree with Michael Gove’s or David Miliband’s politics, but that does not mean to say they deliberately out to do bad for the country – far from it.

Honest Professionals... on the whole.

Our MPs are, on the whole, a genuine bunch who are highly intelligent and deeply passionate. People forget that an MP doesn’t just turn up to Parliament one day and takes his or her seat. They go through an extremely competitive and scrutinised selection process. Once there they are expected to know everything about anything and look after the grievances of their constituents whilst towing a party line. It is not the cushty number that we are often led to believe it is. Having said that, how much are they actually worth?

It is virtually impossible to put a value on it. However, these people would, on the whole, be earning a whole lot more in the private sector I am sure. I do not think that £60k is that unreasonable. Hell, if an estate agent can pick up that sort money in a few months just for introducing a seller to a buyer, I would say they are pretty good value for money. Of course, you cannot compare sectors so easily – if I were knocked down by car I would much rather it was the nurse earning £50k a week than some thug like Joey Barton does at Newcastle Utd.

Monkeys or Turkeys?

It may surprise you that I think we get pretty good value for money for our MPs given my often critical appraisals of them. The self voting pay rise system is not as open to manipulation as you might think. If they started to get silly about pay rises, we can let them know about it in various ways. I do, though, support Gordon Brown's call for restraint in the forthcoming pay vote, particularly as the rest of the public sector is only getting just about an inflationary rise. Admittedly there are some more shady areas that need to be addressed – the expenses gravy train for a start – but like the famous saying goes: if you pay peanuts, you get monkeys. I’d rather have a bunch of turkeys thanks.

The Poliblogs 10 January 2008

Hillary Brown: an apology

As we wipe the egg off our mugs this morning and contemplate the Clinton comeback, let's spare a thought for Gordon Brown. This time yesterday he was being bracketed with Hillary as a wooden time-serving automaton whose lack of charisma, poetry and a certain irresistible sleekness doomed him to imminent demise in the Age of Change. An extraordinary 24 hours later and he's the one having a laugh as reads the "Hillary reels" headlines.

Ben Brogan

Voters don't like hubris

And so Hillary Clinton lives to fight another day. Whether her narrow victory in New Hampshire can be put down to her superior grassroots organisation, her tearful episode earlier this week or the racism of voters who could safely vote against Obama in the privacy of a secret ballot nobody yet knows. Maybe New Hampshire voters simply don't like being told who is going to win and that so-and-so is the "inevitable" winner?

Blaney’s Blarney

An atomic future

Today the UK government is expected to announce that it will resume the building of nuclear power stations. This is good news for the environment. Nuclear power plants are very clean. They produce very little of the carbon dioxide that fossil fuels produce. In emissions terms, one nuclear power station replacing a conventional one is the equivalent of taking thousands of cars off the road. Almost all the waste is recycled. A well-designed nuclear plant actually releases less radioactivity into the atmosphere than a coal-fired plant.

Adam Smith Inst.

Gordon's nuclear con trick

The government is pursuing a simplistic, knee-jerk nuclear energy policy that won't work

Peter Tatchell

Nuclear Family

No Mandate Brown will announce today that the British government intends to build nuclear power stations in England. He won’t be making the same announcement about Scotland, of course, because it’s a devolved matter and the Scottish Parliament has decided that Gordon Brown’s constituents and their fellow countrymen won’t be getting nuclear power stations.

Wonko’s World

Brown's day

So what if the line about David Cameron rehearsing his lines in front of the mirror was itself rehearsed in front of the mirror? The point is it worked in the Commons cockpit and on the telly as a moment that helped bolster the PM, cheer his side, and deflate the Tory leader's attack. Mr Brown described how Mr Cameron "flits through the issues", which is what he did today. (It's a good party trick that delivers on occasion: whack the PM on one subject, then move on to another before he's had time to gather his wits. It didn't succeed today.)

Ben Brogan

Learning Ming's Lesson

First outing at PMQs today for the new Lib Dem leader, Nick Clegg. It was a hesitant, but competent, effort. Clegg has decided to eschew the traditional Lib Dem leader’s seat immediately below the gangway, preferring instead to sit three seats along on the front bench.

David Jones MP

Nick Clegg's first question at PMQs was on "fuel poverty".

Fuel poverty? For some reason nobody's ever satisfactorily explained, fuel poverty is where you spend more than 10% of your income on fuel. And with spiralling energy prices, the number of households in that position looks set to increase even beyond the present 4m, itself a doubling since 2003. Clegg wanted to know what Bottler was going to do about it? Like maybe issuing some kind of directive to our energy companies not to be so beastly and to stop raising prices. Er, yes... Bottler/Darling have already tried that one by bludgeoning the OFT into... well, jolly well doing something!

Burning Our Money

UK Interest rate decision

Now it is not often that Iain Dale beats us to a profound statement about the economy and interest rates...but he did this week. Iain asked the question of what is the real interest rate. This is indeed a hoary old topic, old enough to have been my first decent post on this blog.

Capitalists @ Work

Should MPs vote for above-inflation pay increases?

This morning's FT reports that Gordon Brown and David Cameron are both urging their MPs to reject above-inflation pay increases for themselves. If previous research is to be believed then Conservative MPs are the least likely to be accommodating. There seem to be a number of issues here (in no particular order):

Conservative Home

First London Mayoral TV Debate on ITV

The London Mayoral contest has now officially kicked off. This evening I went along as a studio guest, in my capacity as GLA candidate, for the filming of the first TV debate between the three main candidates- Ken Livingstone, Brian Paddick, and Boris Johnson. It was a fairly strange event in that the studio audience where all supporters from the 3 main parties, and we were to put our questions to the candidate from the rival parties

Meral’s Musings

Boris says Ken to blame for knife crime

Yesterday I received a news release from Labour London Assembly Leader, Len Duvall about Boris's attack on Ken for his supposed lack of leadership on gun and knife crime. This attack was a feature, in the ever so neutral and objective, London Evening Standard on Monday evening. This is a ridiculous argument. Ken has always been consistently strong on law and order. His arguments that it is was the poor and vulnerable that suffered the most from crime and they needed protection by the Police, use to infuriate the left. Now the right are making fools of themselves (and worse) over what should be a serious issue, by claiming he is soft on crime.

Labourhome

Iain Dale's at it again

Oh dear. Iain Dale seems to getting a little bit hot under the collar about Chris Huhne's press release calling for the reclassification of cannabis. Iain quotes something from a Lib Dem conference six years ago (apparently Iain thinks policy is carved in tablets of stone that must remain in place for several decades), where the party appeared to be arguing mainly for the de-criminalisation of drugs under certain circumstances.

Norfolk Blogger

Things go from bad to worse for Hain

This morning's Guardian reveals that Peter Hain may well have in excess of £100,000 in undeclared donations still to report to the Electoral Commission. The paper understands that there are almost 20 donations that his team failed to declare, in breach of the rules for party political elections. This means that Hain spent around £200,000 on his fifth-placed Deputy Leadership campaign, well in excess of the other candidates and twice as much as the successful Harriet Harman.

Peter Black AM

PMQs 9 January 2008

Private Conversations: Shock! Horror!

A big cheer, much of it ironic from the Tory and Labour benches, rang around a packed House of Commons as the latest leader of the Liberal Democrats rose to his feet for his first PMQs. Nick Clegg did the right thing: He kept it simple. No attempt to be clever, no attempted jokes, his job was to survive with his credibility intact.

Boulton & Co.

Brown does a Hillary (again) – and fights back

An angrier Brown was in front of us today, holding handwritten notes for his exchanges with Cameron rather than anything given to him by No10. He would scribble furiously, and went on the offensive - asking Cameron whether he supports ID cards for foreign nationals. It seemed a bit daft at PMQs to hear the PM ask questions of the Opposition leader so often, but it won't be repeated on TV and he needs to show the House he is on the attack. Cameron appeared to say yes, but it wasn't clear. Those normally ashen Labour faces lit up.

Coffee House

PMQs - The Verdict

It was the first prime minister's question time since the festive break but any hopes of a fresh approach in 2008 were quickly dashed. On Tuesday David Cameron had praised US presidential candidate Barack Obama and vowed to bring some of the same spirit of hope to the British political debate. "I think his optimism and sense of hope for the future is inspiring a lot of people," the Conservative leader had said. But with Cameron and Gordon Brown harking back to their own and each other's records it was more a re-run of the past rather than an Obama-ite agenda for the future.

ePolitix

Nick Clegg's debut

The new Liberal Democrat leader did quite well at his first PMQs today, maybe because he chose the right topic: fuel poverty

Michael White

Nick Clegg's first PMQs

Nick Clegg performed well for his first Prime Minister Questions today as party leader. Unlike his predecessors, he's now sat further away from the speaker, so no longer perched on the end of a bench, but surrounded by his colleagues. I think this looks like he's speaking "from the crowd" rather than picked up from a lonely perch, and does look more like he's part of a bigger team.

Northendon

PMQ performance caps a very impressive start for Nick Clegg

At the risk of repeating myself, I am again prompted to observe that Nick Clegg really is making a great start as LibDem leader. We've had a flurry of media appearances and releases over the festive period.

Lib Burblings

Nick off to a safe start

Allthough technically based from home its rare that I am actually there so having the opportunity to see the leadership announcement and Nicks for PMQ is a bit if a shock to the system. So how did it go?

Politics from a Mid Wales town

Brown fights his corner at PMQs

Was Gordon Brown to be the second comeback kid of the day? Not exactly. He was solid enough in the first PMQs of 2008 as his duel with David Cameron resumed where it left off - as a rather scrappy bout of mud wrestling. In essence, it boiled down to Cameron’s demand for a “straight answer to a straight question” against Brown’s heaping scorn on the Tory Leader’s economic record (based on Cameron’s time as a special adviser to Norman Lamont a mere 15 years ago, but we’ll let that pass).

Three Line Whip

The Verdict

It was Nick Clegg’s big day and generally the big hearted blogosphere is being kind to him. I am not so kind hearted and thought he did pretty average. Make no mistake, he is a world away from Ming who was just awful at these sorts of things – but he was no Vince Cable either. In fact, he basically asked the same question twice. It was a good question on energy, but definitely only worth asking once.

As for the big boys, well service has been resumed and I have to say I am getting a bit annoyed with the pair of them. I just get the feeling with Cameron he has not quite got it with PMQs yet. It is all very well taking the PM apart when he is snowed under by 101 crises, like he was back in November, but when he has to actually do the work himself he is not hitting the mark. Today he was clumsy and, while perfectly competent, let Brown take the initiative while he stumbled from one topic to another. Surely the man can do better; he is all about presentation after all and can wow people with his speeches. Why not at the despatch box?

As for Brown, well he came out like a pit bull today. He looked like he wanted a fight – though Cameron just didn’t want to give him one. His latest tactic to get us away from analysing his terrible personality is to answer questions with a question for Cameron. All very well, but this is Prime Minister’s Question, Gordon, not opposition questions. They say politicians are all too often guilty of avoiding the question when answering. The best politicians do this by making you think they have answered it. Brown is clearly not the best politician – he rarely answers the question and you are left in little doubt about it either.

These two need to up their game. Oh to have the performers they have in the US right now. I score it a disappointing draw.

Brown 0.5


Cameron 0.5

The Late Lunch Briefing

Starting today is a new daily column for the Poliblogs - the Late Lunch Briefing. It will be a short comment with a bit of speculation thrown in on the major political issues of the day. No doubt it will evolve over time, but here is the first in the series:

Nuclear Storm

Tomorrow the government publishes it's latest "white paper" in to the building of new nuclear power. There will be absolutely no surprises I am sure. All it will say is that the government backs the building of new nuclear power stations - and well it might. The only way Britain is going to be able to achieve any significant emissions reductions and also protect us from the growing aggressive behaviour from Russia is by giving the green light to nuclear power.

The hardline greens are opposed - as they are to most things. But they must not be pandered to again. Even if work started tomorrow, we still won't get these things on line by 2020. Time is something we do not have. I am sure we are set for yet another legal challenge, I just hope this time it is not taken seriously and does not take up too much time.

Also, when you read the more lazy reporting of this - the government won't be building these new plants. It will be down to the private sector, so it won't cost us anything and it will still be up to the private sector whether they are worth having. The government are merely providing the framework for nuclear power. I, for one, fully support them on this.

What a plonker

Peter Hain. What to say? You took £5k from a source you publically backed two years ago. It does smell a bit fishy to me. And that is only the tip of the iceberg! Why didn't he come clean about the donations when the scandal kicked off in the first place? His job must be hanging by a thread now.

However, if he goes it opens Pandora's box. Harman and Alexander would surely have to go too? Petty politics is the only thing saving Hain right now - but that may just be enough. This is not the last we have heard from the donations scandal by a long shot.

The Thermometer of Doom

It's back - The Thermometer of Doom. The gauge by which the inevitable end of political numbnuts' careers are measured.

The keen eyes amongst you will notice an addition to the line up - a certain Mr Hain who's self confessed shambles of a deputy leadership campaign meant that he took a few grand that perhaps he shouldn't have. And then forget to tell anyone about it - even when Wendy Alexander and fellow Doomster, Harriett Harman, were apologising for similar misdemeanors at a rate not seen since Basil Fawlty was caught by Sybil putting money on a horse. This has put Hain right in the driving seat for an ignoble exit.

The festive period has been quite forgiving for the rest of Brown's motley crew of goons, incompetents and patsies. However, as we all saw in October and November, all it takes is a couple of lost discs here or a few thousand lost immigrants there and the heat is turned right back up.

Who will make it to the reshuffle? More to the point, who will still be there after the reshuffle? I'm still puzzling over how they made it anywhere in the first place...

Politics Decoded: Mystic Garbo’s Predictions for 2008

Published yesterday over at the Wardman Wire, here is the first Politics Decoded of 2008:

Full steam ahead from the Fat Controller

So Gordon Brown has started the New Year at full pace – and well he might. He has appointed Stephen Carter to the new post of chief of strategy and principal advisor to the prime minister, an appointment which has nothing to do with spin we are told. He has gone on a crusade to save the NHS (something that ten years ago we were told they only had 24 hours to do). This week we get the new and improved nuclear consultation paper that will path the way for new nuclear build in the UK. It’s back to Brownanomics – hit the electorate with hard and fast policy announcements. The hope is that people will forget about his dreadful personality and catastrophic Whitehall departments. It’s going to be a long hard slog though if he is going to keep this up. But Brown has seen the evidence – there are two conditions under which he does well:

Firstly, as the policy maker. Before the non-election Brown was making mince meat of Cameron in PMQs – not by outwitting him or going toe-to-toe in a beauty contest. Rather he was batting away anything Cameron had to say by throwing out policy announcements. The u-turn on casinos was a classic example. It stole the headlines. It worked.

Secondly, as the invisible man. It is no coincidence that Labour’s best surge in the polls has come this week. They are now only four points behind the Tories (enough to retain government at the polls, such is the strangeness of our system). So what caused this mass surge? Father Christmas, Catherine Tate and a large turkey. That is to say, we all forget about politics for two weeks and Gordon Brown’s big old mouth wasn’t boring us to tears in between tics.

And there lies the problem – this next election is still all Labours to lose still. Unfortunately, their biggest threat is their leader who single handedly threatens to sink the Good Ship NuLab. It is not what they are saying – as when they say it we seem to like it and when they shut up entirely we like it even more. No, the problem is Gordon Brown himself. Can he last out 2008? Well, below I will give you my predictions on that and my other political predictions for 2008:

The Predictions

Prediction One: Brown will be challenged at the party conference.

I don’t know if things can get worse for the government, simply because I still don’t think the electorate have bought in to Cameron. But if they carry on as they did in the autumn it won’t take much for the party to start to panic. An election is a long way off right now – but by September it won’t seem so far. If they trail in the polls by double figures by then at the very least there will be a challenge, though how serious will determine whether Brown survives. David Miliband is the key player – has he got the bottle?

Predictions Two: Alastair Darling to be given a sideways move.

The spring cabinet reshuffle is likely to have its casualties. Smith hasn’t impressed at the Home Office, Jack Straw is wasted in Justice and Des Browne has outstayed his welcome at defence by a long shot. Hazel Blears is punching above her weight also. But the big one could be the end to Darling’s short and very embarrassing reign as Chancellor. It would be a brave move by Brown to do so (unless we get more scandal at No.11), but it would be bold too and the right thing to do. Jack Straw must be made Chancellor if he is to restore credibility and some weight to Brown’s top table. I also expect wee Dougie Alexander, Yvette Cooper and Ed Balls to get promotions.

Prediction Three: Nothing much happens to the Lib Dems

OK, so hardly Mystic Meg stuff but all this nonsense about the dawn of a new Lib Dem party were dashed with the arrive of Mr Wet himself Nick Clegg. I rate the man, but it was pathetic watching him been bullied by Huhne. All this is irrelevant anyway, the best the Lib Dems can ever hope to poll is in the low 20s – and that is with an unpopular war and a prevailing wind behind them. However, as yesterday’s polls showed and as I have been suggesting, I do expect a small rise in the Lib Dem vote and at the expense of the Tories. However, overall it isn’t Ming who is old and haggard, it is the party’s politics.

Prediction Four: The Tories will not become the natural party of choice. Yet.

Right now the Tories are doing well because Labour is doing badly. There is still a quantum leap needed for them to really become the party of choice. Labour hit the 60s in the pre-1997 polls and still they doubted whether they were going to win. The Tories are a million miles off holding the position Labour did in the mid-1990s, but if they are to have any hope of forming the next government they need to occupy this ground. The key to doing this is to be humble and doubt themselves at every corner. The vitriolic triumphalism they showed when they had Brown on the ropes was fun to watch at first, but it won’t go down well with the electorate in the long run. Already people are getting fed up with Cameron’s bully boy tactics at PMQs. So you stopped an election you wouldn’t have won? Big deal – how about winning one?

Predictions Five: U-Turns

It is starting with the u-turn on the 24hour drinking u-turn and looks set to continue. ID Cards and 42 day detentions are prime territory for government to make u-turns – and popular they would be too. How will the press report them though?

Predictions Six: Livingstone to remain as Mayor

This is not looking like the foregone conclusion I thought it was a few months ago. I think Boris is playing, contrary to many others opinion, a brilliant campaign so far. By the start of the campaign proper in spring he wants to be in touch in the polls and right now he is neck and neck – far better than he could have hoped. This could go to the wire, but in the end common sense will prevail. I just hope Livingstone doesn’t stoop to cheap and below the belt tactics – playing the race card against Boris is just unpleasant and very damaging to London.

The Economy Stupid

Of course, there are all the other factors that are likely to impact 2008 – most importantly the credit crunch and global economy. I have always believed that to truly end the reign of a government the people must lose all faith in its ability to handle their money – could 2008 be that year? It really is the make or break question for the politics in 2008. If the Labour can hold out this year with managing the expectations of a bad economy without full blown recession, the Tories may just struggle to become the natural choice for the electorate. If Labour does lose our confidence though, it will be easy pickings for Cameron and Co. The next twelve months will decide who will win the next election I am sure with whoever standing on top by January 1^st 2009 heading straight to Downing Street.

The Poliblogs 9th Januray 2008

Healthy debate

It is hard, in all honesty, to be against virtue. It can be tough to harbour doubts about democracy. Nevertheless . . . The Scottish Government has published proposals for direct elections to Scotland’s 14 territorial health boards. Scenes of rejoicing all round? Not quite. The document itself is notably tentative: consulting on “whether” such a development should take place, rather than merely how.

Blether with Brian

Hain in trouble

Should Cabinet ministers provide public endorsements for private companies? What if that company boasts that it offers 125per cent mortages "something that traditional lenders won't consider"? What if the minister in question is Work and Pensions Secretary, responsible for helping those at the sharp end of financial hardship who fall prey to money lenders?

Ben Brogan

The truth about Beckham, please

In his press conference earlier my Daily Mirror colleague asked Mr Brown if he was - as believed - meeting David Beckham in the near future. Alistair Darling smiled knowingly but the PM looked stern. He said Mr Beckham had done a "brilliant job" with the Olympics. If there was some other project he could help with, fine, "but I've got no specific plans to talk to him about that". We were left thinking there was nothing in it.

Ben Brogan

Sorry Danny: I'd call this appeasement

Danny Finkelstein has written a substantial piece for The Times arguing that Republicans need to modernise and adapt to the changed American landscape or else the GOP will be out of power for a generation. Endorsing former Bush insider David Frum's new book, Comeback, Finkelstein argues that what he calls "the old tunes" no longer resonate. He goes on to assert:

Blaney’s Blarney

The Gordon and Alistair show

It was the Gordon and Alistair show today, rather than the Brown press conference. And Darling did far more than the intro. He jumped into answer questions, with his message – that HMS Britain was built by Labour to weather a world economic storm. He detailed meetings with world leaders, as if to try and hammer home his point that innocent Britain is caught in a world economic problem, not our fault guv, etc. Anyway, here are five thoughts on each of them…

Coffee House

Stephan Shakespeare: Frothy opinion polls

Stephen Shakespeare co-founded YouGov and is the owner of ConservativeHome.com.

I would like to be able to begin: “As I predicted, Hillary wins in New Hampshire...” Unfortunately I only said that Obama’s lead would be much, much smaller than the polls were indicating, and I made that prediction to friends (such as the editor of this site), and not in print. I enquired about the more attractive odds on Hillary to win the nomination, but I didn’t actually place the bet. So my claim is empty of glory.

Conservative Home

An end to the something-for-nothing culture

At last, a policy from the Conservative Party emanating from the very foundations of common sense, designed to appeal to all unquestionably reasonable and fair-minded people, and to challenge the ‘work-shy’ millions who are content to lie in bed until midday and live off state benefits day in, day out, year after year. Under the next Conservative administration, people claiming Jobseekers' Allowance for more than two years would have to do 12 months community work.

Cramner

Feeling blue, Peter?

A minister responsible for a department handling billions of taxpayers' money has proved 'regrettably' sloppy with his own campaign finances

David Henke

Marking Gordon's card

Gordon Brown has now said ID cards won't be compulsory: is that a genuine rethink, an honest mistake or a deliberate attempt to mislead?

John M Morrison

Why the Lib Dems are right on Europe

One of Norfolk Blogger's hopes for 2008 was that Hunter would write a pro-Lib Dem post. Nich's wish has just come true! The Lib Dems are the only political party with a sensible approach towards our membership of the European Union. Many in my own party and in the Labour party, aided by an unholy alliance of the red tops and anti-capitalist trade unionists, are calling for a referendum on the European Treaty. The treaty, agreed by European leaders in 2007, is highly complex.

Hunter & Shooter

Change can't just be a slogan

Although I have yet to meet him, I was led to believe David Wrede, the new Chairman of Taunton Deane Liberal Democrats was a man with many admirable qualities; a respected hospital consultant and member of many medical associations . A man capable of taking the local party onwards and upwards; to better and greater things.

The Willow Man

Opinion: Should we have primaries in Britain?

With the US primary season now in full sway, the question about whether or not UK political parties should hold primaries will inevitably be debated once again. Tory MEP Dan Hannan makes the case for over on the Telegraph Blogs. In fact, primaries are now practiced in the UK by the Conservative Party, although only in a limited way - it is just one of the ways a Conservative Association may choose to select their candidates and the system more closely resembles a caucus system similar to the one used in Iowa as opposed to a full open primary system in that participants must attend a public meeting in order to vote.

Lib Dem Voice

Tories "work for benefits" plan does have some merits

Far be it for me to heap praise on the Tories or their usually vacuous leader "Call me Dave" Cameron, but despite the incredulous comments from both the government and the Lib Dems about the Tories proposals for a "work for benefits" scheme for the long term unemployed, I actually think it has some merits on a number of counts, but it cannot work without a root and branch review of the whole benefits system

Norfolk Blogger

The Drug Debate

In 1997, Commander John Grieve of the Criminal Intelligence Unit, Scotland Yard, had this to say to Channel 4: "If the (drug) problem continues advancing as it is at the moment, we're going to be faced with some very frightening options. Either you have a massive reduction in civil rights or you have to look at some radical solutions. The issue has to be, can a criminal justice system solve this particular problem?"

Ordovicius

Brown tries to reassure on ID cards

Despite his planned comeback having been derailed slightly by Peter Hain's problems, the Prime Minister has moved today to try and reassure us all that ID cards are not some evil big brother device. The BBC report that he has suggested that ID cards may not become compulsory for all Britons:

Peter Black