Monday, 17 December 2007

The Poliblogs 17th December 2007

Why Labour under Brown is certain to lose#

Did the controversial “named leader” question get it right all along? The above table is reproduced from UK Polling Report’s record of the controversial “named leader” questions that several pollsters asked during the period between David Cameron’s election as Tory leader in December 2005 and Gordon’s arrival in June 2007. These findings proved to be highly controversial and every time I featured them on the site they came under fierce attack. For what was being presented was dynamite. For on almost every occasion when compared with the standard voting intention findings Labour was shown to do considerably worse with Gordon in the job.

Political Betting

YouGov give Tories a commanding lead

A YouGov poll in the Sunday Times has voting intentions with changes from their last poll of CON 45% (+2), LAB 32% (nc), LDEM 14% (nc). The 13 point Conservative lead is the largest YouGov have ever given them, and matches that recorded by ComRes (who tend to produce larger Tory leads than other pollsters) last month. 45% is their highest level of support since 1992 and the highest for any party since MORI started filtering by likelihood to vote, removing some of the towering Labour leads they used to report as their topline figures. On a uniform swing it would produce a Conservative majority of almost 100.

Polling Report

Good politics

There should be no human scrapheap. That is why no keen young Conservative will ever convince me that Toryism isn't evil

Alex Hilton

The Vision Thing

There is an interesting article in The Economist this week, which states "The Conservatives are doing well, but not well enough." That's probably a fair assessment. The point is that despite the government's recent woes, and the sustained poll lead they have produced for Cameron's opposition, the Tories have not managed to really pull away from Labour. As The Economist notes, in 1995 Labour were scoring 60 percent, more than 30 percent ahead of the Tories. By contrast, Cameron's Conservatives are only averaging a ten-point lead, with 41 percent to Labour's 31.

Adam Smith Inst.

The Bank and the Treasury

If red lights aren't flashing in Downing Street today they should be. The signs of divisions between the chancellor and the governor of the Bank of England would be unwelcome at any time. They are of real concern in the midst of the, as yet unresolved, Northern Rock crisis. They should be truly alarming on the eve of what looks set to be the toughest year the British economy's faced in a long time.

Nick Robinson

Can Brown's reputation hold up under the weight of Northern Rock?

It is a strange world where the right are urging nationalisation, but it seems Gordon Brown may bow to that advice. Larry Elliott in The Guardian is impeccably well informed in such matters and today says Brown is drawing up plans for a "new year nationalistion" of Northern Rock.

Coffee House

Is today the lowest point in Gordon Brown's premiership so far?

Reading through the papers this morning will not be a pleasant experience for Gordon Brown. Obviously the headline that is most likely to put Gordon off his porridge will be the YouGov poll which shows a 13 point lead for the Tories on 45%. This would translate to an election victory for the Conservatives with a majority of 102.

Daily Referendum

Labour homies get upset at Major

I see that John Major quite rightly pointing out that the Labour Party has been institutionally sleazy over the past ten years has caused consternation and outrage from people on LabourHome. As you'd expect the fallacy of "double standard" is thrown around whilst at nop point realising that just because someone may have been around when bad things happened they are somehow invalidated from pointing out that bad things happen now.

Dizzy Thinks

Madness stalks the land

Following our rather elegant "cathedrals of insanity", it is Booker's turn to have a go at what he does not hesitate to call "the maddest single decision ever made by British ministers."

EU Referendum

Cameron is "tearing his hair out" over Boris' lazy Mayoral campaign

There's an interesting article from Peter Obourne in the Mail: I am reliably told that David Cameron is "tearing his hair out" at Boris's lazy campaign. He backed his Old Etonian friend for the mayorship in the summer because he was eager to show that the Tory Party was taking the battle for London seriously by putting forward its most dazzling public performer for the top job. But the performer is - thus far - failing to perform. Obourne warns that a bad defeat for Johnson would have wider ramifications for Cameron and the Tories:

Liberal Burblings

Tommy Sheridan arrested and charged with perjury

Not for the first time, the self-styled Glasgow Guevara, Tommy Sheridan, finds himself in trouble with the police. The permatanned Pasioniara of Pollok has been arrested and charged with perjury in connection with his 2006 defamation suit against the News of the Screws, when he won £200,000 for their scurrilous suggestions that, when not fighting for the cause of the underprivileged and dispossessed of Scotland, Tommy and his brother-in-law were double-teaming buxom party activists in cheap flats around the country.

Mr Euginides

When did Brown lose the election?

Jon Bright (London, OK): Bit unfair, perhaps. He hasn’t lost it yet. But with Cameron polling enough for a 90-seat majority, and gleefully forcing the Lib Dems to pick their side in a hung parliament early, it’s certainly not too early to talk about it. Apparently Brown’s personal rating has “slumped to minus 26%” - I’m not quite sure how any poll rating can go negative (are new voters are going to migrate to Britain just to vote against him?) but this certainly sounds, well, rubbish.

Our Kingdom

Has Cameron set a trap for the new Lib Dem leader?

Should the LDs now work with the 45% Tories to fight Brown? On the day of the best Tory poll figures for 15 years and only two days before the Lib Dems get their new leader there’s an audacious move by Cameron which could prove problematic for Nick Clegg or Chris Huhne. For in an initiative calculated to put the new leader on the spot immediately Cameron has offered to join forces with the third party to forge a “new progressive alliance’ to challenge Gordon Brown.”

Political Betting

Libdem Leadership, Tuesday's the D-day

The poll has closed and now everybody is waiting with abated breath for the result to be announced on Tuesday as to who will be the next Liberal Democrat leader. My money is still on Nick Clegg. I'm hopeless at predictions but having followed the whole thing pretty closely, he's the better option who will hopefully bring a bit of life back into the party.

Suz Blog

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