I'm Back!

Happy New Year one and all!

The Poliblogs is back! All the usual stuff will resume from today including the Daily Round up - the round up of all the best political posts in the blogosphere from the past 24 hours.

I will also be writing a new daily column on the Poliblogs - the Late Lunch Briefing. My comments on the big story or stories of the day in British Politics. Rather like a mini-Politics Decoded, which I write every week over at the Wardman Wire. You can see my latest column there here, where I set out my predictions for 2008.

The Thermometer of Doom and the PMQs battle analysis will also return - come back later today for both of these!

So please come back daily for the best of the best in the political blogosphere!

Politics Decoded: The Spinning Disaster, Lib Dem Anti-Climax & Classic Headlines

Here is the weekly Politics Decoded column published over at the Wardman Wire...

And now, the end is near…

So 2007 is drawing to an end and what a year it has been politically. We have seen the departure of one of the most successful, yet controversial and talked about Prime Ministers this country has ever had. We have seen the rise and fall and subsequent rise of the Heir to Blair, David Cameron. We have seen yet another Lib Dem leader go and today we will see a new one arrive. But the biggest story of all has to be Gordon Brown, aka Mr Bean. The PM no-one wanted, yet took the Labour party to their best lead in the polls for years only to send them crashing to their lowest in what will surely go down as Brown’s autumn of discontent. But how much is Brown to blame for his and Labour’s catastrophic demise?

Events dear boy, events

Just as his so called handling of the foot and mouth crisis, blue tongue and failed terror attacks had absolutely nothing to do with Brown being in control, the events of the post “election that never was” era were also virtually out of Brown’s hands. Northern Rock was, you could argue, his fault as a direct result of his years as Chancellor, but it would be unfair to pin all the blame on him. The missing discs debacle and the endless run of missing data stories do not directly lead to his door. Nor does the latest donations scandal. Yet while Blair could shake of a Bernie Ecclestone scandal here and a WMD fiasco there, with Brown the mud not only appears to be sticking, but it is getting flung relentlessly. But if Brown is not to blame why is he getting a pasting by the media and in the polls? The answer is simple…

The Root cause

It s roots lies in virtually his first move as PM – he signalled the end of spin and a complete departure from the Blair era. In itself no dumb act – in fact it really did work for a few months. The problem was this very act of ending spin was classic Blairite spin. It was his very own “today is not the day for sound bites” moment”. In that very declaration of ending spin, Brown was spinning such nonsense that Alastair Campbell would have been proud. So why did Blair get away with spin yet Brown can’t? In short, because Brown is absolutely hopeless at it.

The Classic Scenario

Let’s take the election that never was. All this was about spin. Brown tried to con us all that he wanted to get on with business of government. No he didn’t – he didn’t want to call an election in autumn because he thought he wouldn’t improve his majority. Then he smelled blood as the polls started to show a very healthy Labour lead so he refused to rule an election out. Then he dithered, refusing to rule out an election for so long he had no choice to call one… only the polls had reversed and all of a sudden it was the Tories who led. Cue more poor spin and a bungled non-election. All he had to do, if he really wanted to stay away from spin, was to say we’re in the business of government, no election, right from the off.

The Repeat Scenarios

This scenario has now been repeated with every minor or major crisis that he has had to deal with. The EU Reform Treaty is the latest example. First off he thought it would look better if he was seen to be signing the Treaty. Then he realised this poor piece of spin wouldn’t work so he decided to sign it on his own away from the cameras and the other EU leaders. This just meant he looked like an even bigger bungling fool, signing the Treaty in backroom, hoping no-one sees him – yet it just meant we all watched him even more. The man is proving himself to be a walking disaster.

The Alternative

I am in no doubt that if Cameron was in power he would have faced all these same issues – they are events beyond a PM’s control. However, would he have dealt with them better? The EU issue would have been a disaster for him, but you get the feeling that while Cameron is not yet entirely trusted as a potential leader, he could hardly be doing any worse…

Big Day for the Lib Dems

When the Lib Dem leadership election started all those moons ago, you felt that they could finally break away from the shackles of Ming and private life of Kennedy. What could possibly go wrong? They have the perfect leader in waiting – a Cameron type without the (obvious) spin. A Lib Dem with ideas and respected across the benches. Unfortunately, Nick Clegg never showed up in this contest (except to get all tearful about that nasty Chris Huhne chap). As for Chris Huhne, well he was, for my money, the also ran. The man who couldn’t even beat Ming the last time round. Well, he turned in to a big bully, but at least he was a little vocal. So they are left with a choice between a man who was considered worse than Ming and a man who isn’t quite as good as well all thought he was. But that is not even the worst of it.

The inevitable anti-climax

In the meantime we have had Vince Cable to act as stand in. Nearly as old as Ming and leaving Parliament, no-one took much notice. Not until he started to dominate PMQs on a weekly basis. Calling the PM Mr Bean has done as much damage to Brown’s reputation as a truck load of lost data discs could ever do. His ability to mix humour and getting to the heart of the issue make Brown’s and Cameron’s weekly Punch and Judy show look deeply unsophisticated. So instead of Ming’s departure being a chance for a rise in expectations, whoever wins today is going to look like a massive disappointment.

Merry Christmas and a new feature for the New Year

I will not be writing Politics Decoded next week, what with it being Christmas day and all! However, I will be back in the New Year. I will be introducing a new feature to the weekly column, the top five best blog headlines of the week. So keep your eye out for any good ones, or nominate yourself for a mention. I will of course be keeping an eye open too during my daily roundups. Send your nominations to poliblogs@hotmail.co.uk or leave a note in the comments.

In the meantime, I will leave you with some of my favourites from the mainstream media…

Belfast Man Saved, Hundreds die in disaster - Belfast Telegraph reports the sinking of the Titanic

It’s Paddy Pants Down – The Sun, as sensitive as ever

Zip Me Up Before You Go-Go – The Sun covering George Michael’s indiscretions

Cheggers Can’t be Boozers – The news that Keith Chegwin has given up the booze

Man With One Arm And Leg Cheats On Other Half - News Of The World.

Elton takes David up the aisle – Yes, you’ve guessed it, The Sun. Which they followed up with the honeymoon story:

Now Elton takes David up the Grand Canal

Dr Fuchs, off to America – Der Spigel

Man Struck By Lightning Faces Battery Charge- unconfirmed…

Fog Over Channel, Continent Isolated – The old classic… but true?

But the greatest of all time has to be Inverness’s thrashing of Celtic, reported by the Sun as

Super Cale Go Ballistic Celtic Are Atrocious

If you can get on a par with any of those, let me know and you will get a mention on the Politics Decoded Top Five Blogging Headlines

Merry Christmas & Happy New Year

Another tough day at the office

This afternoon's schedule in Parliament:

1530: Brown on EU summit

1630: Darling on lost discs

1730: Kelly on DFT data

1730: MPs grill HMRC bosses

Another tough day at the office for Labour, then.

The Poliblogs 17th December 2007

Why Labour under Brown is certain to lose#

Did the controversial “named leader” question get it right all along? The above table is reproduced from UK Polling Report’s record of the controversial “named leader” questions that several pollsters asked during the period between David Cameron’s election as Tory leader in December 2005 and Gordon’s arrival in June 2007. These findings proved to be highly controversial and every time I featured them on the site they came under fierce attack. For what was being presented was dynamite. For on almost every occasion when compared with the standard voting intention findings Labour was shown to do considerably worse with Gordon in the job.

Political Betting

YouGov give Tories a commanding lead

A YouGov poll in the Sunday Times has voting intentions with changes from their last poll of CON 45% (+2), LAB 32% (nc), LDEM 14% (nc). The 13 point Conservative lead is the largest YouGov have ever given them, and matches that recorded by ComRes (who tend to produce larger Tory leads than other pollsters) last month. 45% is their highest level of support since 1992 and the highest for any party since MORI started filtering by likelihood to vote, removing some of the towering Labour leads they used to report as their topline figures. On a uniform swing it would produce a Conservative majority of almost 100.

Polling Report

Good politics

There should be no human scrapheap. That is why no keen young Conservative will ever convince me that Toryism isn't evil

Alex Hilton

The Vision Thing

There is an interesting article in The Economist this week, which states "The Conservatives are doing well, but not well enough." That's probably a fair assessment. The point is that despite the government's recent woes, and the sustained poll lead they have produced for Cameron's opposition, the Tories have not managed to really pull away from Labour. As The Economist notes, in 1995 Labour were scoring 60 percent, more than 30 percent ahead of the Tories. By contrast, Cameron's Conservatives are only averaging a ten-point lead, with 41 percent to Labour's 31.

Adam Smith Inst.

The Bank and the Treasury

If red lights aren't flashing in Downing Street today they should be. The signs of divisions between the chancellor and the governor of the Bank of England would be unwelcome at any time. They are of real concern in the midst of the, as yet unresolved, Northern Rock crisis. They should be truly alarming on the eve of what looks set to be the toughest year the British economy's faced in a long time.

Nick Robinson

Can Brown's reputation hold up under the weight of Northern Rock?

It is a strange world where the right are urging nationalisation, but it seems Gordon Brown may bow to that advice. Larry Elliott in The Guardian is impeccably well informed in such matters and today says Brown is drawing up plans for a "new year nationalistion" of Northern Rock.

Coffee House

Is today the lowest point in Gordon Brown's premiership so far?

Reading through the papers this morning will not be a pleasant experience for Gordon Brown. Obviously the headline that is most likely to put Gordon off his porridge will be the YouGov poll which shows a 13 point lead for the Tories on 45%. This would translate to an election victory for the Conservatives with a majority of 102.

Daily Referendum

Labour homies get upset at Major

I see that John Major quite rightly pointing out that the Labour Party has been institutionally sleazy over the past ten years has caused consternation and outrage from people on LabourHome. As you'd expect the fallacy of "double standard" is thrown around whilst at nop point realising that just because someone may have been around when bad things happened they are somehow invalidated from pointing out that bad things happen now.

Dizzy Thinks

Madness stalks the land

Following our rather elegant "cathedrals of insanity", it is Booker's turn to have a go at what he does not hesitate to call "the maddest single decision ever made by British ministers."

EU Referendum

Cameron is "tearing his hair out" over Boris' lazy Mayoral campaign

There's an interesting article from Peter Obourne in the Mail: I am reliably told that David Cameron is "tearing his hair out" at Boris's lazy campaign. He backed his Old Etonian friend for the mayorship in the summer because he was eager to show that the Tory Party was taking the battle for London seriously by putting forward its most dazzling public performer for the top job. But the performer is - thus far - failing to perform. Obourne warns that a bad defeat for Johnson would have wider ramifications for Cameron and the Tories:

Liberal Burblings

Tommy Sheridan arrested and charged with perjury

Not for the first time, the self-styled Glasgow Guevara, Tommy Sheridan, finds himself in trouble with the police. The permatanned Pasioniara of Pollok has been arrested and charged with perjury in connection with his 2006 defamation suit against the News of the Screws, when he won £200,000 for their scurrilous suggestions that, when not fighting for the cause of the underprivileged and dispossessed of Scotland, Tommy and his brother-in-law were double-teaming buxom party activists in cheap flats around the country.

Mr Euginides

When did Brown lose the election?

Jon Bright (London, OK): Bit unfair, perhaps. He hasn’t lost it yet. But with Cameron polling enough for a 90-seat majority, and gleefully forcing the Lib Dems to pick their side in a hung parliament early, it’s certainly not too early to talk about it. Apparently Brown’s personal rating has “slumped to minus 26%” - I’m not quite sure how any poll rating can go negative (are new voters are going to migrate to Britain just to vote against him?) but this certainly sounds, well, rubbish.

Our Kingdom

Has Cameron set a trap for the new Lib Dem leader?

Should the LDs now work with the 45% Tories to fight Brown? On the day of the best Tory poll figures for 15 years and only two days before the Lib Dems get their new leader there’s an audacious move by Cameron which could prove problematic for Nick Clegg or Chris Huhne. For in an initiative calculated to put the new leader on the spot immediately Cameron has offered to join forces with the third party to forge a “new progressive alliance’ to challenge Gordon Brown.”

Political Betting

Libdem Leadership, Tuesday's the D-day

The poll has closed and now everybody is waiting with abated breath for the result to be announced on Tuesday as to who will be the next Liberal Democrat leader. My money is still on Nick Clegg. I'm hopeless at predictions but having followed the whole thing pretty closely, he's the better option who will hopefully bring a bit of life back into the party.

Suz Blog

My International TV Debut

Last night my interview on BBC World went out live to the world. It was all very fun. I was interviewed by Johnathan Charles about the political blogosphere's reaction to Gordon Brown's signing of the EU Refrom Treaty.

I think I did ok - though did not say exactly with I'd have liked to have said and my journey home was full of l'esprit de l'escalier. Hopefully next time (!) I will be more ready for it all having got in a bit of practice!

The graphic boffins at the BBC put together a brilliant montage of the site set to music prior to me going on, which made the site look very exciting!

I am not sure if the interview will be carried on BBC4 - I suspect not now. If anyone saw the interview on BBC World or can get a copy of it, I'd be interested to hear from you.

The Thermometer of Doom

Another day of burying bad news with bad news by the government. After telling us a month ago that 5,000 illegal immigrants had been granted security clearance, about three months too late, Jacqui Smith has told us the actual figure was 11,000. This will only add to the (unfair in my opinion) calls from the Police Federation for her head.

No surprises that this announcement has come out when all eyes are on Lisbon. Nevertheless, the temperature has just risen on Jacqui Smith's thermometer of doom!

The Daily Roundup and TV appearance

I will be doing a full round up tomorrow morning in light of the EU Reform Treaty signing. I will also be posting my thoughts on the matter.

If you would like to hear my thoughts on the matter, all being well, I will be appearing (live) on BBC World (television) this evening at 7:30pm and also at some point on BBC4 (television) news.

PMQs 12 December 2007

Brown's artful dodger act

This time, Brown came ready for Cameron. If asked about one of the many embarrassing issues dogging him, he’d say “he has missed the opportunity to talk about substance” then indulge in his list of fake economic greatest hits. Cameron thought on his feet, pointing out that the substance is going wrong for the PM too. But Brown responded by again saying that Cameron can’t talk about substance, and produced another boast. So, much for the great exchange.

Coffee House

PMQs - The Verdict

It was the last prime minister's questions before Christmas but there was precious little generosity of spirit on offer in the chamber. Acting Liberal Democrat leader Vince Cable at least sounded a seasonal note as he laid into his old friend Gordon Brown for the last time. "When the prime minister tucks into his brussels sprouts on his one day off at Christmas, which of the various disasters of the last six months will he regret the most?" he asked. The prime minister, memorably dubbed "Mr Bean" by Cable, could not resist trying to have a dig back.

ePolitix

Live blog of PMQs

Editor's verdict: "A win for Brown but more because of Cameron's choice of questions rather than because the PM performed well. DC's second set of questions were too trivial although he started with Kosovo, of course. David Cameron should have asked about substantial issues. Labour's record on education would have been a good topic. Cable's first question was funny. His question on Iraq was over the top." Nick Robinson, however, says that Cameron's aim of painting Brown as indecisive could be of great long-term benefit for the Conservatives.

Conservative Home

Vince Cable gets full marks for PMQs again

Vince Cable seems to have got most commentators' thumbs-up for most amusing and effective of what was his and this year's last Prime Minister's Questions.

Liberal Burblings

Slow Start To Final PMQs Of The Year

The last session of Prime Minister's Questions before Christmas began as a strangely subdued affair. After a Tory question on the involvement of Lord Drayson in defence exports, there followed a moving tribute to Lee Johnson from his constituency MP, which took place in complete silence.

Niall Paterson

A mixed bag of emotion at PMQs

There were tears and laughter at the last Prime Minister’s Question Time before MPs scatter up for their Christmas break next week. A sombre start to the session saw a respectful hush fall over the Chamber as Labour’s Dari Taylor paid tribute to her constituent Sergeant Lee Johnson, killed in Afghanistan at the weekend. Her voice choking with emotion, the Stockton South MP came close to weeping as she pleaded with Gordon Brown to ensure Sgt Johnson’s finance be treated with care.

Three Line Whip

Downhill all the way for Cameron

Another poor showing from the Tory leader at PMQs today and yet more proof that under Cameron the Tories have gone as far as they can. After today's woeful performance it comes as no surprise to hear the likes of Peter Riddell pointing out that "the public is dissatisfied with Gordon Brown, but not yet enthusiastic about David Cameron."

The UK Daily Pundit

The Verdict

By no means a classic. There is a real mixed opinion about who came out on top today around the blogosphere. Cameron really has not been hitting the money these past few weeks, while Brown become a bit of a ducker and diver on just about every questions. It does beat him losing his temper or giving a plain stupid answer that lands him it like he prone to doing a month or so ago.

Once again the real star, the only star, was Vince Cable. Boy the Lib Dems are going to miss him.

I score it:

Brown 0.5

Cameron 0.5

So that is it for 2007 and PMQs. Taking today result in to account, Cameron has come out on top 8.5 to 4.5. To be fair, he has had all the aces, but there have also been times when Brown really has dug his own grave. The first few months of next year are going to be absolutely critical in defining how well this Brown government is going to fair – and much of it will be played out at PMQs, so come back in January for the weekly updates and scores!