You can read my latest Politics Decoded column over at The Wardman Wire now.
I discuss what could be a major mistake in the Boris strategy, the troubles that are likely to face the Tories in light of Brown signing the EU Reform Treaty and I join the calls for knighting Ringo!
Tuesday, 15 January 2008
The Poliblogs 15 January 2008
Getting tough
At last, Britain's Conservative Party is getting in touch with its masculine side. And doing very well as a result. David Cameron spent a year turning his rather unpromising colleagues into something that more resembles a team, that seems engaged with the issues that affect ordinary people's lives, and that in part is almost human - or at least gives a convincing impression that it might be. Along the way he mightily irritated a number of Conservative supporters who picked up the message that health and education just needed more cash, louts should be loved, and tax cuts were right off the agenda.
Coppers' Friends? Not The Tories
Who are the coppers' best friends in Parliament in the row over police pay? Not the Conservatives, on the evidence of extraordinary exchanges between Jacqui Smith and MPs during Home Office Questions. It's not often the Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis, is lost for words. But on police pay, it seems, he has been struck dumb. Predictably, the Home Secretary got a rough ride from MPs over her (or rather, her boss, the Prime Minister's) refusal to backdate a 2.5 per cent pay rise for police, reducing it to 1.9 per cent.
Will Labour pay a political price for NR nationalisation?
Was action delayed because of the planned November election? With the government having lined up a veteran City executive, Ron Sandler, to run a nationalised Northern Rock there’s been a big downward move on the stock market on the NR share price. The expectation is that if the government steps in then equity investors will suffer.
Between a Rock and a hard place
Rachel Sylvester has a typically eloquent and perceptive piece on the political ramifications of nationalising Northern Rock in the Telegraph today. As Sylvester points out the government has to come up with a solution before the end of February when the six month period for state aid mandated by the European Union runs out.
Gordon Brown - is he, or is he not, the Prime Minister?
I understand that Gordon Brown has told The Sun that Peter Hain's future as a member of the cabinet is out of his hands. What a peculiar statement. Surely Hain has been carpeted, and just as surely both he and Gordon Brown know whether he is going to be found guilty by the Electoral Commission and the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards. They both know the rules. And in that case if Gordon Brown is surely the Prime Minister he should have made one of the two following statements:
A stay of execution for Peter Hain?
Gordon Brown, in typical Pontius Pilate mode, has indicated that Peter Hain’s fate now rests with the Electoral Commission and the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards. That being so, our absent-minded Work and Pensions Secretary will be breathing a sigh of relief.
The rising cost of an MP
The size of Peter Hain's campaign fund suggests that democracy is no longer within the pocket of the common man
Northern Rock - there is a better alternative to nationalisation
The debate about Northern Rock on Newsnight yesterday failed to produce a thought through alternative to nationalisation, to protect the taxpayers interest and avoid more damage to markets. As readers of this blog will know, there is such an alternative. Maybe I have to spell it out again.
How the Lib Dem leadership contest almost turned into a bloodbath
The current issue of the House Magazine has an article on the challenges facing Nick Clegg, written by Greg Hurst. More striking, however, are Hurst's claims about the tensions behind the scenes during the recent leadership contest. Writing of the tension between Nick and Chris Huhne, Hurst says:
George Osborne’s defence starts fraying at the edges
At first sight, George Osborne’s defence of his undeclared donations looked pretty good: the money was declared to the Electoral Commission, the Parliamentary authorities were asked if it needed declaring to them, they said no, but if they’ve now changed their minds, it’ll be done went the story.
Six questions for Boris
Boris Johnson is being interviewed tonight on BBC London News. Ken's campaign have suggested some key questions the BBC ought to be asking:
More from the Sunday Times poll
The full results of the YouGov poll are still up on their website here. As usual they asked a wide variety of subjects, so here’s a run down of some of the other findings. Gordon Brown’s figures continue to plummet, his net “good job” in the YouGov poll for the Sunday Times was down to -20, as compared to -10 in November. Cameron’s figures are up at plus 25. There were figures for Nick Clegg, but so far these mean very little indeed, with well over half of respondents saying don’t know. Less good for Cameron was one of those focus group style questions asking what animal people thought politicians resembled: Brown was seen as a bear, a nice strong image there. Cameron was seen as a snake, oh dear.
Monday, 14 January 2008
The Late Lunch Briefing
Brown Indecisive. Again.
Once again, the past few days have shown Gordon Brown up for being indecisive and possibly even a bottler. Where was he when the latest Peter Hain story broke? Absolutely no-where. Then, five days late or so he decides to back him b y refusing to sack him, but then implies that he will probably have to fall on his sword anyway. What sort of a backing is that? The backing of a weak and indecisive leader. Brown knows that if he sacks Hain it opens the flood gates though he is desperate to keep them closed. But if had just acted swiftly in the first place, this scandal would be over and he wouldn’t be forced to defend the indefensible.
Some Labour Luck
Labour did have a small piece of luck over the weekend, with the news that George Osborne had failed to properly register some donations he received via the Conservative Party (who had already registered them). The credibility of these stories is exemplified by the lack of credence given by the press for any serious misdemeanour and only senior figures like Lord Malloch Brown daring to criticise Osborne. However, you cannot blame Labour for trying to make some political capital out of this non-story given the mess they are in.
Will he go?
The chances of Hain going are still very much in the balance. Now that Brown has backed him, doing a u-turn on that would look ridiculous given the indecision that has dogged Brown’s premiership so far. However, the pressure on him to resign may yet become too strong. The whole thing depends on his ability to explain the reason for the Think Tank, Progressive Policies Forum, that all this money appears to have been laundered through. If it was some sort of money laundry, then it proves that this whole debacle was a premeditated and planned. At present we have no answers as to what this think tank was set up for other than to pass money through. All we do know is that the think-tank employs no staff and has not published any research since it was set up in December 2006. Very suspicious.
The Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, John Lyon, has today confirmed that he is to launch an investigation into the funding row following a complaint by David Davies. If Hain can prove that this was just an oversight, then he will survive. That is a big if however and Hain needs to come up with some answers sooner rather than later or he will not only be damaging his own reputation irreparably but also the Labour party's.
Blog of the Week Awards
Blog of the Week:
Anders Hanson - Fast becoming, for me, the number one Lib Dem blogger along with Norfolk Blogger. Mr Hanson covers all the major issues that are currently going in in Westminster whilst also giving the Lib Dem spin on things (without be overly partisan). His coverage in the past week has covered Peter Hain and MP's salaries as you would expect, but has also given a great insight in to Clegg's start as Lib Dem leader.
Not only a must read for Lib Dems, but a top notch blog for everyone else too.
And the Runners-up:
Daily Referendum - I have been a fan of Daily Referendum now for a long time. I don't always agree with Steve Green's politics, but he covers the issues brilliantly and argues his point better than most in the blogosphere. A passionate Tory, but not afraid to criticise, Daily Referendum is up there with Iain Dale and Dizzy in the right of centre bloggers for me. This week Daily Referendum's guns are pointed directly at Peter Hain.
Dave Cole - A new one to me, but started a fascinating debate on MP's salaries between myself and Matt Wardman and, of course, Dave himself. Dave Cole covers a range of topics, but has a strong focus on politics. I will definitely be keeping my eye on this one and it now features on the Daily Roundup.
The Poliblogs 14 January 2008
Transparently still in trouble
A simple principle would, we were told, clean up politics. That principle was "transparency". In other words if voters can see who gives a politician or party substantial sums of money we can judge for ourselves whether the donor's got anything for his money. Sounds simple although, in practice, has proved anything but.
A barrel full of rotten apples
If your best mates clubbed together and gave you £103,000 when you needed it, you'd remember it, wouldn't you? Remarkable, then, that UK Work and Pensions Secretary Peter Hain didn't. He's accused of not registering seventeen donations towards his campaign for the Deputy Leadership of the Labour Party, totaling this amount. His forgetfulness is all the more astonishing when you consider that his campaign far outspent those of his rivals. So this was a large wodge of cash that public standards watchdogs weren't told about. Even Tony Blair, with his £500,000 salary from J P Morgan, his book deals and the rest couldn't simply miss £103,000.
Why Hain must go
Of all the reasons why Peter Hain should go, here’s my top one. Right now a quarter of British families are caught up in Labour’s hideously complicated means-tested benefits – tax credits, etc. If they “forget” to declare income, it’s called benefit fraud – an offence for which Hain’s department successfully prosecuted 28,800 people in 2006-07. Yet now that Hain himself has forgotten to declare income he has a get-out clause: declare late, and you are automatically off the hook. Not so for those being hounded for over-payment of tax credits.
Is it time for Hain to leave the stage? by Paul Linford
I have, in the past, been a great admirer of Peter Hain. Up to around about 2002/3 he was a strong progressive voice within government who was occasionally given licence to challenge the orthodoxy as when, for instance, he advocated a higher top rate of tax.
Labour cries "Osborne!"
Labour is not holding back on George Osborne. MPs are being deployed across the wires and studios to shout "hypocrite" at the Shadow Chancellor. One, Ian Lucas, has issued a long list of "questions he must answer". Even a minister - Shahid Malik - has got in on the act. They quite naturally want to knock him off his rather impressive stride by dragging him into the donations mire. So where are we?
Tory Funding Scandal: Deliberate Obfuscation of Donors
The sordid details of the Sir George Osborne attempt to bury bad news for Peter Hain have trickled out all day. These "Wish of George Osborne" donations have been steaming in throughout 2007. From January to December inclusive. It was not until 7 December 2007, as he continued his assaults on Hain's situation, that GOO asked for advice on whether he should have been registering the donations. Although there was a short period in which the advice was that this figure almost approaching half a million pounds did not have to be added to the Register of Members' Interests this soon passed.
Another angle to George Osborne's £500,000
Ben Brogan notes that Labour is doing its best to big up the Osborne donations story but there really is no comparison with Peter Hain's undeclared £103,000. George Osborne told the Electoral Commission about the money channeled via CCHQ to his Shadow Chancellor's office. Perhaps he should also have made a declaration to Commons' authorities but he clearly wasn't trying to hide it. The best two observations on the Hain money were made by...
Is Brown's Electoral Commission submission complete?
Here's an interesting thing, anyone remember the Gordon Brown leadership website domain registrations and Silverfish from early in 2007? Well, why is it that Silverfish do not appear on Brown's Electoral Commission submission as a benefit in kind?
It's time for the flat tax
The Daily Telegraph has published a plea for a simpler tax system on its comment pages this morning. The paper highlights that stamp duty now brings in £6.75 billion a year - nine times the amount brought in by this tax in 1997. It rightly highlights how so much of the money we pay in tax is wasted rather than being spent in the manner wanted by taxpayers.
Your Body Belongs To The State
Not even the People's Republic of China goes this far. True, 95% of all their transplant organs are taken from executed prisoners. But so long as you don't get condemned to death, your organs are safe. Here in Bottler's Britain, having abolished you know what, the commissars are thinking much more expansively. And today the Supreme Leader tells us the state should own your body organs. He wants to change the presumption of body ownership from you to the state health commissariat.
The first President of Europe
Europe has its caesars, emperors, kings, kaisers and popes, and now, courtesy of the Lisbon Treaty, it is about to get its first president. And Cranmer prophesied years ago who this would be, and the Rt Hon Anthony Blair denied the aspiration shortly afterwards, but who believes a politician when they’re giving assurances that their humility surpasses that of all their colleagues?
Nick Clegg on public services
I couldn’t attend yesterday’s Liberal Democrat manifesto conference (I was at another Lib Dem event in Harrogate), and so like many people I have had to rely on the copy of Nick Clegg’s speech that is posted on the party website and various comments by other bloggers (I recommend James Graham and Paul Walter).
What to do instead of nationalising Northern Rock
It appears that the government is flirting with nationalisation because it is having trouble persuading the shareholders of Northern Rock to see things its way. It is a very cumbersome and potentially very expensive device to try to get shareholders to do as the government wishes, when the government has a much easier way of doing it.
Why MPs need to back their pay deal in full
I had lunch today with one of our MPs, a long term friend we specifically decided politics was off limits for the day. They did said they will be voting against the full pay rise because of all the work they were doing in support of the police claim and it would be hypocritical to do otherwise I told them I thought they were wrong and we left it at that ,but here I thought I might explain why.
Politics from a Mid Wales town
MPs may lose voting rights on their own pay rises
Harriet Harman has indicated that this year may be the last that MPs get to decide their own pay rises. The Senior Salaries Pay Board decided MPs should get a 2.8% pay rise this year whilst the British government is forcing English civil servants (but not in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland where they have their own democratic governments) to accept pay rises under 2%.
What next for Blair ... Viscount Dodgy of Dossier?
Why should politicians get rich at all? When President Harry Truman left the White House in January 1953, he had no income apart from his meagre army pension from the First World War. Yet he refused offers to take well-padded corporate posts, because he feared it would damage the dignity of the office. The man who had authorised the use of the atom bomb walked out of the Oval Office to become plain Mr Truman and to live out a life of modest obscurity.
Tories back to 10 points ahead
Through December there were some somewhat contradictory polls - we saw YouGov putting the Conservatives way up at 45%, then an ICM poll showing Labour recovering. That was followed by a YouGov poll that also showed Labour recovering…but that was taken in the few days before Christmas when it’s had to believe a reliable sample could have been drawn. It looked like Labour might have been recovering. Populus’s poll this month didn’t show the same sort of recovery in Labour’s support, but it did show the Tory lead falling thanks to them loosing support to the Liberal Democrats. Now two new weekend polls, one from Ipsos MORI for the Sun and one by YouGov for the Sunday Times suggest the Conservative lead is back up into double figures.
Is Gordon now staring defeat in the face?
Two more polls show increases in the Labour deficit. A week ago Gord returned from his holiday and went on the publicity offensive with a series of set-piece interviews and high profile announcements. For days there was hardly a TV bulletin without him featuring. This wasn’t a re-launch, we were assured, but it had all the makings of one. Brown was trying to get the initiative back and to build on the improvements in Labour polling fortunes that we had seen in the run-up to Christmas and beyond.
Sunday, 13 January 2008
New Feature on the Poliblogs: Bloggers of the week
When I first started the Poliblogs, one of my intentions was to have a league table of who I thought were the "form" bloggers at that moment in time. Of course, as with most of my ideas I never got round to doing it. Until now... sort of.
I have decided to do a weekly feature of my top three blogs in the political blogosphere of that week. The intention is not to have the same big three bloggers each week, so the only rules to the weekly top three are:
- No blog can feature two weeks in a row
- It is totally my discretion as to who I put in the top 3
- There is no scientific approach other than my humble opinion!
So there - you may not like it and I doubt very much my opinion will change the political blogosphere's pecking order. But seeing as I read so many blogs on a daily basis, I thought I would share with you who I am enjoying most that week. Find out tomorrow who the first top three are...
The Wardman Wire Daily News Roundup
I have added the audio for Matt Wardman's Daily News Roundup on the right hand column (just below the PMQ's battle info). Matt is currently experimenting with doing a daily audio of all the major and interesting stories from the mainstream press. Just click the play button and sit back and relax while Matt reads you all you need to know in about two minutes. What could be easier?
Friday, 11 January 2008
The Late Lunch Briefing
Boris – will he do it?
Yesterday I went to a debate at the London Chamber of Commerce that discussed whether Boris Johnson could become Mayor. The panel consisted of Tony Travers from the LSE and ComRes's Andrew Hawkins and political blogging giant, Iain Dale. Iain has done a post on the debate over at his blog today which will fill you in on the main areas of discussion. In today’s lunchtime briefing I will throw my pennies worth in the debate...
It was very quickly established that everyone present thought that Boris could win. However, it was only Mr Dale who thought that he actually would win (though Iain is claiming that there were some shy Tories in the room who were scared to own up). An interesting, if not wholly unscientific, poll result. Why would everyone think that he could win but then go on to believe that he actually wouldn’t? The answer is complicated, but probably lies somewhere in the fact that Ken is the incumbent and when push comes to shove we’d rather stick with someone we know is credible than take a gamble on a maverick. It got me thinking though; under what conditions could Boris actually win?
The Polls are lying
This was pretty well covered by the panel. Tony Travers and Andrew Hawkins made the very valid point that the polls should not be taken too seriously with this election. The reason is twofold:
Firstly, and less importantly, this is not going to be a winner takes all election – the system takes in to account second preferences. So even if Boris is only a point or two behind Ken, he will still need to pick up the second preference votes. This will probably be the overriding factor is stopping Boris becoming Mayor. It is pretty widely accepted that the second preference votes are more likely to go to Ken.
Secondly, the turnout at London Mayoral Elections has been very low so far. They tend to attract about 35% - a figure that makes it virtually impossible for pollsters to accurately predict what the result will be. Boris may well be popular with the young voters, but the likely fact is very few of them will actually bother turning out.
The Tactics
So, in terms of the positive polls for Boris, thing are not as good as they may seem. In terms of the actual battle, right now I think Boris is doing as well as he possible can – in short he is playing a blinder. For some strange reason, Ken is resorting to cheap and unpleasant personal attacks. He is trying to paint Boris as a racist and a buffoon. Everyone knows Boris is a bit of a buffoon – it is why everyone loves him so much. As for the racism – it just won’t wash and only makes Ken look desperate. Why, if Ken has all the vision and credibility is he not playing to it? Why is he effectively going “Look at him! Look at him!” The result is we will all look at Boris and probably listen to what he has to say. If you are in the driving seat, forget your opponent, especially when they are as charismatic as Boris. Let Boris mess it up. Boris on the other hand is saying the right things, but time will tell if he is taken as a serious politician. When push comes to shove would you rather it were Boris or Ken in charge during a crisis? Right now, most people would probably plump for Ken.
All in all, Boris is a lovable figure but I just don’t think that the masses will take the gamble. As soon as Boris starts talking serious he loses that appeal. His best hope, as the panel agreed, is to fight this campaign as being Boris the personality. I just don’t think, given the terror threat and rising crime in London, that it will be enough on the day and Londoners will come over all serious.
The incredible significance of this election
The significance of this election was not lost on the panel either. A win for Boris in London would have serious implications for the Labour party nationwide. Tony Travers described the Mayoral elections as a proxy war and I have sympathies with this assessment. If Boris can win in London it will be reported as a massive victory for the Tories and the first tangible sign that they are an electable party again who have Labour on the ropes. On the other hand, if Ken wins it will show that even with all the disasters that Labour has gone through recently they can still win in a traditionally strong Tory area. This really is round one in the next general election – the winner of which will be in a commanding position.
Connie Huq?!!
After I left the debate I settled down to watch the ITV debate involving the candidates themselves. Imagine my horror when Connie Huq popped up on my screen. I lasted about twenty minutes before I switched off the most amateurish political broadcast I think I have ever seen. It was like a school debate with the head girl as the chair. No direction, no control, no idea. Even the set was appalling and the audience all dressed up in their rosettes?! This was no Question Time and Huq is no Dimbleby. ITV should stick to Pop Idol or whatever it is they do.
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