Thursday, 4 October 2007

One - Nil Cameron?

If it is true what Iain Dale is reporting on his site that a Guardian poll out tomorrow show a 3-point Tory lead then Gordon Brown has just made the biggest tactical mistake of his short career as a PM – but it could be the most costly. He can not call an election if he is three points behind. Cameron would have completed his mission impossible (as the Sun have been calling it) and he may have just saved the Tory party from ten more years of Labour rule. Gordon Brown may well wake up tomorrow morning with a load of egg all over his face. By not settling the issue of there being no election early on, he has shown himself to have very poor judgment - and if he can't go to polls this year he is going to pay.

The weekend opinion polls will be more important than anything that comes out tomorrow as they won't have taken in to account Cameron's speech nor had a chance to settle down, but this is a staggering swing if true. I sense that the polls are up the air so much so that we won't get a clear picture until next week and even then it may not be clear enough - so will that be too late for Brown to make a decision?

If these poll reports are true and the lead is sustained over the weekend, then Cameron has pulled off an absolute master stroke and goes in to next year One-Nil up against Brown.

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