Tuesday, 29 January 2008

A View Accross The Pond

The Republican’s Big Day

The Republican’s are waking up to their day on the front pages today. So far it has all been about the Democrats, but today in Florida only the Republicans will be going to the polls with anything to play for. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani will find out in just a matter of hours whether his gamble to focus all his efforts on to Florida have paid off... all the signs are, it hasn’t.

The Democrats are down to a two horse race between Clinton and Obama. I predict that tomorrow the Republicans too will be in a two horse race with Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani fading away to the leaders John McCain and Mitt Romney. A Quinnipiac survey shows McCain on 32% to Romney's 31%, Giuliani's 14% and Huckabee's 13%. Four other pollsters tell much the same story.

Clinton whinging

Meanwhile, Hilary Clinton is really showing herself up, again. She is calling for the state's delegates to be reinstated. This despite all the candidates agreeing that they would not campaign in Florida on the proviso that no delegates would be awarded. I suspect that there is more to run on this and that a row with Obama could be brewing... again. Obviously, if the vote is close and no-one looks set to lose out too badly, then the delegates will almost certainly be reinstated as a way of avoiding any damaging arguments.

The betting between Clinton and Obama is tightening – Clinton is still the favourite, but the gap is closing. Obama’s case has probably been helped by backing from a member of the US “Royal Family”, Senator Edward Kennedy. He is said to be up-happy with the Hilary Clinton’s campaign and sense that he is not the only one.

My Prediction

As for the Republicans it is looking like McCain all the way to me. All this could change of course next week when we enter Super Tuesday where 24 states hold their primaries. Right now I am going to lay my cards on the table: Come November we will be watching a battle between McCain and Obama. And what a battle that will be – two brilliant politicians who offer in the way of personality, at least, so much on opposite ends of the scale. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – oh to have this calibre of candidate leading our two main parties.

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