The Poliblogs 19th September

Student Tasered after asking US Sen John Kerry a question!

Student Andrew Meyer was stunned with a Taser and taken to jail on Monday (yesterday) after police say he disrupted an event with U.S. Sen John Kerry and refused to leave. Makes you wonder what they would have done to old Walter Wolfgang! However, in all seriousness, I think this is a shocking piece of footage - exactly what threat does this young man pose?

Labour Home

Grammars return to haunt Dave

Tory conference in a fortnight is a critical one for David Cameron. He needs to show that he commands his party and has overcome this summer's wobbles. So it's bad news for him that Graham Brady has decided to address a fringe meeting organised by the National Grammar Schools Association on the eve of the leader's speech.

Ben Brogan

Fault from the vaults

Who's to blame for the crumbling of Northern Rock? Plenty of fingers are being pointed, but no one seems able to agree.

Dave Hill

Nick Wood: Is Cameron a lucky general?

Napoleon favoured lucky generals. On that basis, David Cameron should be made a Field Marshal. Last week, as the press made hay with the policy report on the environment, conjuring up lurid headlines about higher taxes on flights, driving and shopping, Cameron looked on the back foot.

Then Gordon Brown's big tent flapped open to embrace Margaret Thatcher - reinforcing the impression that PM-For-Life Brown is truly the father of the nation.

Conservative Home

The shameful truth behind Donnachadh McCarthy’s demise

In yesterday’s Independent, former Lib Dem member Donnachadh McCarthy slates the Lib Dems in his article “The shameful truth behind the Lib Dems’ demise”. He is wrong on so many counts, but I will pick out two.

Anders Hanson

'Duracell Dave' should campaign on crime and the NHS

Labour's standing has fallen but Cameron-Osborne have fallen further. A leader in The Times describes the Conservative response to the banking saga as "intellectually lamentable and politically misjudged". Last night's ToryDiary thread - below the news of Labour's 8% lead - had the smell of defeat about it. It was more depressing than the poll itself. Let's get things into a little more perspective. Here are a few thoughts:

Conservative Home

Labour running ahead despite Northern Rock

This is interesting - an ICM poll in Wednesday’s Guardian has voting intentions of CON 32%(-2), LAB 40% (+1), LDEM 20% (+2). It was conducted between the 13th and 16th, so a lot of it would have been after the Northern Rock difficulties started to dominate the news agenda. It’s early of course, public opinion can take a while to digest events, but as an early sign it suggests the sign of economics wobbles is boosting Labour support rather than damaging it.

Polling Report

Will Gordon "cut and run"?

ICM in the Guardian has Labour back on an eight point lead tonight, so cue the early election scenario, which refuses to go away. The argument in favour says that if tonight's Populus poll in the Times and ICM are taken together, they provide evidence that the public is shifting decisively away from David Cameron.

Ben Brogan

Massive ICM blow for Cameron and the Tories

It’s 3am as I write and my first action before starting this piece was to open up my Spreadfair account and buy Labour at the 310 seat level on the general election spread market. The latest Guardian ICM poll is out and shows Labour with their biggest lead from the pollster since September 2005 three months before David Cameron became leader.

Political Betting

My Two Cents...on an early general election

Gordon Brown’s honeymoon is heading towards 3 months. An ICM poll today puts Labour 8 points ahead of the Tories. More worryingly for David Cameron, voter satisfaction with the Tory leader is even lower than for Sir Menzies Campbell, the beleaguered leader of the Liberal Democrats.

Blaney’s Blarney

Police Officers consider strike action?

According to Jon Gaunt of The Sun there are mutterings of strike action amongst many police officers because they are so demoralised by the state of the service and the governments refusal to honour their pay deal. Last night's Panorama showed us in no uncertain terms how much of our police officer's time is being wasted on red tape and poor management.

Daily Referendum

Sp-oiling for War

One of the most-touted, but least-analysed, accusations surrounding the war in Iraq was that it was a grand 'Blood for Oil' deal. Plenty of incidental details feed in to a general air of suspicion, but so far there has been no real 'Adlai at the UN' or Watergate Tapes-style revelation that has proved this thesis. We all knew that Bush ran an oil company called Arbusto. Dick Cheney meets with oil execs in secret in order to devise energy policy. And that Texas oil men have a habit of giving large donations to the GOP. Still, those New Left protagonists could not get the pesky mainstream to really embrace the notion. Then, the altermondialistes opened their morning paper and thought that the political equivalent of OJ admitting killing his wife had occurred. Alan Greenspan had revealed: 'We wanted the Oil!'.

Kop Lob Pob a Job

Ming Is Not The Problem

Not being in Brighton this week, I don't know what the 'vibe' coming out of Conference is, but I see the media are still banging away on their mindless 'Ming fights for survival' riff. Well, I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Ming Campbell is not the problem.

Barcharters Anonymous

Cameron less popular than Campbell

To paraphrase old Rudyard, we should treat our triumphs with the same contempt that we reserve for our disasters, but it is nonetheless glorious to see Cameron slipping in the opinion polls behind Ming Campbell (credit: Paul Walter. More here). What’s more, this can’t be called a conference bounce since most of the polling was done before conference started.

Quaquam blog