The By-election Blogs 19th July 2007

It's been a dirty, dirty campaign by all those concerned. With so much to lose and so little to gain by all side it is no surprise. Anything less than a 4,000 majority for Labour will be jumped on by the Tories; anything less than a win for the Tories will be jumped on by Labour; anything less than a win for the Lib Dems (their first lost when coming second the polls in a by-election for how many years?) will be jumped on by just about everyone - in the direction of Ming's head.

Will the "Brown Bounce" continue? Will Cameron's PR be enough? Is it the end of the road for Campbell? Find out in today's round up from the blogosphere... (Don't forget Sedgefield by the way!)

Welcome to the Jeffrey Archer Suite, Belmarsh…

With everything else that’s gone on around the Ealing Southall by-election and mere hours before the polls open, you’d think there was nothing left to be said until the result is announced tomorrow night.

And you’d be wrong, because just when you thought you’d seen every last twist and turn, Jonathan Isaby pops up at the Telegraph and manages to drop himself and the Tory Party right in the shit with a blog post (now hastily removed) that appears to contain a criminal breach of the Representation of the People Act:

Ministry of Truth

Police investigation into Ealing Southall postal votes ‘leak’

As if the Ealing Southall by-election needed another twist… news has broken tonight that police will be mounting an investigation following the leaking of alleged postal vote scores via the Telegraph’s Little and Large blog, authored by Daily Telegraph journalists Brendan Carlin and Jonathan Isaby.

Lib Dem Voice

Polling day arrives

The result of this by-election, whatever it may be, will produce highly predictable post-count analysis. If Labour lose then it will be a "blow for Brown" obviously. If the Lib Dems get knocked into third then Campbell's leadership will be in question and Nick Clegg will be being mooted as the man to solve their problems.

Dizzy Thinks

Polls today, spin tomorrow

Byelections aren't what they used to be. There were only six deaths in the last parliament, and seven so far since 2005, compared with 24 between 1987 and 1992 when BBC Newsnight's byelection reporter Vincent Hanna was in his boisterous prime. Alas, he died too, though Michael Crick shows promise on the stump.

Michael White

What to make of the by-elections?

I’m not the greatest fan of Parliamentary by-elections. They provide, almost invariably, an unedifying political spectacle in which fairness, objectivity and the public become by-standers to the main event. That turnout is usually low - despite the avalanche of leaflets, and babble of mob-handed canvassers - highlights the gulf between the amped-up interest of we politicos, and the damped-down disinterest of the voters.

A Liberal Goes A Long Way

Election Fever?

Funny place Westminster. The man who became prime minister rejecting the need for a general election to confirm him in office is, we are endlessly told, secretly considering holding - you guessed it - a general election. The signs are, it's said, all there.

Nick Robinson

Could Sedgefield be the big surprise?

While all the attention has been on Ealing Southall could Tony Blair’s former seat at Sedgefield be the election that causes the biggest surprise tomorrow?

With a Labour share in 2005 at more than 58 percent this surely should be a certainty. But therein could lie the ingredients for a shock.

Political Betting