Wednesday, 18 July 2007

The Poliblogs 18th July 2007

The most important fact in British politics

The Brown bounce is proving to be a bumpy ride. Nevertheless, I am sure the experts are right when they tell us that we won’t see a true picture emerge until after the conference season. But perhaps we need an even longer perspective, because we seem to have forgotten the most important fact in British politics:

Which is that the last British recession ended in 1992.

Peter Franklin

First Boris v Ken poll?

The first Ken vs Boris poll is out in the Standard - Livingston 32%, Johnson 23%, Greg Dyke (presumably as an indepedent) 9%, an unspecified Lib Dem on 6%, John Bird (again presumably as an independent) 5%, unspecified Lib Dem on 5%. 25% undecided.

Polling Report

Gordon Brown's Record on Gay Rights

Gordon Brown has got a nerve. In the Daily Mail today he is putting himself up as some sort of gay rights activist and supporter. But if you actually look at his voting record on gay rights issues he has carefully absented himself on each occasion the issue has been debated. More than a coincidence, I would say. Matt Wardman has helpfully provided a list of the fourteen votes Brown has missed, such is his total commitment to an equality agenda.

Iain Dale

No More Targets

After nine years of tractor factory misery, the government is going to "abandon" its public service targets. Under the visionary leadership of Shaky, new Chief Commissar at HM Treasury:

Burning Our Money

Financing public sector investment

For the last 20 years we have been expected to swallow the 'Private sector good - public sector bad' myth both in terms of the provision of public services, and the financing of them through various PPI's, PFI's and other Private Public Partnership deals. This letter in The Guardian is a plea for sanity.

Bob Piper

Metronet, TfL, Ken and the shortsightedness of Gordon

It seems that Metronet is in severe danger of going down the tubes (pun entirely intended).

… Needless to say, if Metronet goes bust then "the investment programme in London's transport system" will not "be fully maintained".

Devil’s Kitchen

My Two Cents...on parliamentary sleaze

Politicians love to tell us that the reason that the public is so disenchanted with politics is all the fault of the media. Tony Blair whined about it in his final days as Prime Minister and I remember the Tories bleating about it when John Major was in trouble.

Enough is Enough

A new cold war? Nonsense. It's old-fashioned diplomacy

It is puerile to compare this Anglo-Russian mess to that titanic ideological struggle. Shared interests tower over these spats

Simon Jenkins

Boris Johnson

I feel a bit guilty, being responsible for the series of events that led to Polly Toynbee being able to type this:

... how has [Boris Johnson] survived the Darius Guppy scandal when he was recorded agreeing to find a journalist's contact details so old Etonian friend Guppy could have the man beaten up? How badly? Guppy suggested just a few cracked ribs. Later when Guppy was jailed for a £1.8m insurance fraud, Boris explained his role with: "Oh poor old Darry was in a bit of a hole. He was being hounded."

Freeborn John

Is there a lesson for Gord here from John Major?

The above table, adapted from UK Polling Report, shows what happened to the polls when John Major succeeded Margaret Thatcher in November 1990 - the last time a Prime Minister was replaced mid-term.

With all the talk of a general election in the air a critical issue will, surely, be the expected length of Gordon’s poll bounce. Clearly new or different faces and a new approach had a very marked impact then and it really is no surprise that the same is happening now.

Political Betting

Levy's Next Visit to the Police

Sleazy Levy is due to visit a police station under the terms of his bail conditions shortly. He will be very nervous about this visit. There is a good chance that he will be charged on this next visit. Ruth Turner is also due to answer bail soon. Guido is looking to collect soon on some bets on Levy facing charges.

Guido Fawkes

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